2022: The Year That Was

It seems to me….

“It’s not the events of our lives that shape us, but our beliefs as to what those events mean.”  ~ Tony Robbins[1].

Another year goes into the books.  The following is not intended to be an inclusive compendium of all that transpired within the past year, it is limited primarily to those occurrences of interest to me.  The world is too large for anything more comprehensive.  Generally, our most important events are not those recorded in historical chronicles:  births, deaths, marriages, graduations….  Those are what we will remember in coming years.

There are numerous more complete lists available on the Internet; e.g., Historical Events in 2022[2] from which much of this is based.

Economy

Inflation reached its highest level in 30 years becoming the primary economic concern not only in the U.S., but throughout much of the world.  Current high inflation can be attributed to a number of factors including the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, supply chain issues, and a strong labor market.  Global inflation is currently 8.8 percent but predicted to decline to 6.5 percent in 2023 and to about 4.1 percent by 2024.  U.S. inflation will likely remain high through early 2023 but continue coming down after that until eventually reaching the target rate of 2 percent toward the end of the year.

As central banks across the world simultaneously hike interest rates in response to inflation, the world may be edging toward a global recession in 2023.  A number of financial crises in emerging markets and developing economies could result in additional economic stress according to the World Bank.  Fortunately, major macroeconomic indicators remain relatively positive so any recession most likely will be comparatively minor.

March 16:          The U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time since 2018 by a quarter of a point to help ease rising price inflation.

April 19:             U.S. inflation hit 8.5 percent, the highest since 1981, driven by an increase in gas, rent, and food prices.

April 25:             Twitter announces a deal to sell itself to Elon Musk for $44 billion.

June 15:             The U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.75 percent, the largest increase since 1994 in an attempt to control rising inflation.

August 7:           The U.S. Senate passed a sweeping Inflation Reduction Act.  It is a large economic package designed to combat climate change, address health care costs, and tax large corporations.

August 17:         The UK’s inflation rate rose to a new 40-year high of 10.1 percent with food costs the largest contributor.

October 27:       Elon Musk took ownership and control of Twitter and immediately fired 4 executives.

November 2:     The U.S. Federal Reserve increased interest rates for a fourth straight time to range of between 3.75 and 4.00 percent, its highest rate since 2008, in an effort to fight ongoing inflation.

Elections

Elections resulted in major changes in political leadership in quite a few countries.  In the U.S., the Democratic Party considered itself successful in midterm elections in that they maintained control in the Senate and losing the House by less than predicted in what was a major defeat for Trump backed candidates.

April 24:             French President Emmanuel Macron won re-election defeating National Rally’s Marine Le Pen, the first sitting French president re-elected in 20 years.

July 7:                 British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced his resignation at Downing Street after pressure from and the mass resignations of his ministers.

September 5:    The UK’s ruling Conservative party appointed Liz Truss as their next leader and Prime Minister replacing scandal-ridden Boris Johnson.

October 20:       UK Prime Minister Liz Truss announced her intention to resign, after 44 days in office, making her term the shortest in the country’s history.

October 22:       Italy formed a new coalition government, choosing far-right Brothers of Italy (Fratelli d’Italia – FdI) leader Giorgia Meloni as Prime Minister.  She is the 1^st female to hold the office.

October 24:       The UK’s ruling Conservative party appointed Rishi Sunaks as their next leader and Prime Minister replacing Liz Truss after six weeks.  Sunak is the first PM of color in the country’s history.

October 30:       Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was elected President of Brazil for a third term after a tight run-off race against sitting President Jair Bolsonaro.

November 1:     The fifth Israeli election held in under four years was won by Benjamin Netanyahu and his Likud party defeating sitting Prime Minister Yair Lapid.

November 12:   In the U.S. Mid-term elections, the Democrats retained control of the Senate following Catherine Cortez Masto’s victory in Nevada 50-49.

November 15:   Former U.S. President Donald Trump announced he intends to again run for President in 2024 despite many candidates he promoted failing to win election in the U.S. midterms.

November 16:   The U.S. Republican party regained control of the House of Representatives by a narrow margin.  Kevin McCarthy will be the Leader of the House.

November 19:   General elections in Malaysia produced the country’s first ever hung parliament with opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim securing the most seats.

December 7:      Peruvian president Pedro Castillo was ousted from office after trying to dissolve Congress who were about to impeach him on corruption charges.  Vice president Dina Boluarte was sworn in as country’s first woman president.

Entertainment

COVID-19 concerns seemed largely forgotten as large crowds packed into major entertainment venues.  While sports competitions dominated headlines, movies, plays, and concerts were also well attended.

February 4:        The XXIV Olympic Winter Games opened in Beijing, China.

August 9:           Tennis superstar Serena Williams announced her intention to retire in an interview with Vogue.

November 20:   Elton John completed the North American leg of his “Farewell Yellow Brick Road: The Final Tour” at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, California.

November 28:   Qatar Football World Cup Chief Hassan Al-Thawadi confirmed 400-5000 immigrant workers died during the building of world cup venues.

December 18:   Argentina defeated France 4-2 in a penalty shootout after extra time after the teams locked at 3-3 in the FIFA World Cup Final at Lusail Stadium, Qatar.

Environment

Environmental degradation not only continued but also seemed to escalate.  Climatic extremes exceeded numerous previous records but remained inadequate to evoke any response appropriate to counter intensifying global challenges.  As if global warming was insufficient, numerous earthquakes and volcanic eruptions reminded us that Mother Nature always has the final word.

February 14:      The megadrought affecting the U.S. Southwest is now considered the worst in 1,200 years.

February 28:      A UN Landmark climate change report warns global warming is outpacing human efforts to adapt.  Their best-case scenario is a rise of 1.5°C with 14 percent of all species facing a “very high risk of extinction”.

April 13:             At least 448 people were killed after heavy rains and flooding in KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa, “one of the worst weather storms in the history of our country” according to authorities.

May 3:                A heatwave continued across North and Central India disproportionally affecting the poor with March and April temperatures the hottest ever recorded in 122 years.

June 18:             Flooding in Bangladesh and nearby Indian states left four million stranded, without electricity, and with at least 41 dead as monsoon floods become more frequent and extreme.

June 22:             A 6.1 magnitude earthquake, Afghanistan’s deadliest in twenty years, struck in the southeast near Khost killing at least 1000 and injuring 1500.

June 25:             Japan recorded its highest-ever temperature in June of 104.36 degrees (40.2°C) in Isezaki, northwest of Tokyo.

July 19:               Temperatures exceeded 40°C in parts of England for the first time ever.

July 20:               An intense heatwave across Europe resulted in over 1000 deaths in Portugal and 500 in Spain and started wildfires across Spain, France, Italy, and Greece.

July 24:               A heatwave across the U.S.’ Northeast forced many cities including Boston, St Louis, and Philadelphia to declare heat emergencies.

August 11:         A “monster” wildfire south-east of Bordeaux fought by 1,000 firefighters burnt through 7,400 hectares (18,286 acres) in France’s driest summer since 1961.

August 25:         California voted to ban the sale of all new gasoline-powered cars by 2035.

September 8:    Europe had the warmest summer ever recorded being 0.4°C warmer with August being 0.8°C warmer according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service.

September 28:  Hurricane Ian made landfall as a high-end category 4 hurricane near Cayo Costa, Florida, with winds of 150mph killing at least 148 people just in Florida.

October 28:       Tropical storm Nalgae stikes made landfall in Virac, the Philippines, killing 112 people.

November 15:   The world’s population reached 8 billion, just 11 years after passing 7 billion, though the rate of increase is now slowing down (9 billion are expected in about 2037) according to the UN.

November 2:     Mauna Loa, the world’s largest active volcano, erupted for the first time in nearly 40 years on the Hawaii island.

November 20:   New York state activated the National Guard to assist with a historic snow event around Buffalo, with Orchard Park receiving almost 6¹/₅ ft.

November 20:   The UN COP27 summit agreed to establish a fund to help poor and vulnerable countries with climate change with a committee to be made up of representatives from 24 countries.

November 21:   A magnitude 5.6 earthquake struck near the city of Cianjur on the Indonesian island of Java killing at least 268 people with over 1000 injured.

Firearms

U.S. mass shooting incidents involving multiple victims of firearm-related violence continued unabated without any apparent means of reduction.  When final numbers are in, 2022 will likely be the second worst year for mass shootings on record.  Implausibly, several of the few existing firearm possession restrictions enacted were declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court in yet its latest attack on sanity and reason.

May 10:              The U.S. reported its highest rate of gun-related deaths in 24 years for 2020, according to the CDC, with firearm homicides increasing 35 percent to 6.1 deaths per 100,000 people nationwide.

May 14:              An 18-year-old gunman killed 10 people and wounded three at a Tops supermarket in east Buffalo, New York, in a racially motivating attack.

May 24:              19 children and two teachers were shot and killed at Robb Elementary School in Uvalde, Texas, by an 18-year-old gunman.

July 4:                 A lone shooter at a 4^th of July parade in Highland Park, Chicago, who killed seven and wounded 47, was later captured.

November 19:   A gunman opened fire at Club Q, a LGBTQ nightclub in Colorado Springs, CO, killing five people and injuring 19 in an apparent hate crime.

Healthcare

The worldwide COVID-19 pandemic continued its onslaught though the number of new fatalities began to slightly decline as a slowly increasing number of people either became vaccinated or have been infected by the virus.  Unfortunately, the virus continues to mutate into more transmissible variants making it difficult to control.  The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates that just under one-third of the total U.S. population has now been infected by the virus.

January 10:        The U.S. reported 1.34 million new COVID-19 infections, a global record, with the Omicron variant accounting for an estimated 95 percent of all cases.

March 7:            The global death toll from COVID-19 passed 6 million according to Johns Hopkins figures with 57 percent of the world’s population being fully vaccinated.

March 31:          The first truly complete sequence of a human genome was published by the Telomere-to-Telomere (T2T) consortium after breakthroughs in new technology (previously just over 90  percent had been coded).

May 14:              The U.S. recorded its one millionth COVID-19 death.  The White House ordered flags to fly at half-mast through the weekend.

May 25:               Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus was re-elected Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO) in Geneva, Switzerland.

July 21:               U.S. President Joe Biden tested positive for COVID-19.

November 21:   China reported 28,127 new COVID-19 outbreaks with half in Guangzhou and the municipality of Chongqing with public venues to be closed in Beijing and Shanghai.

December 7:      After widespread public protests, China announced a major loosening of COVID-19 restrictions for the whole country allowing home quarantine and scrapping QR codes effectively ending China’s zero-COVID-19 policy.

Infrastructure

The majority of the U.S.’ existing infrastructure initiatives were constructed between 50 and 100 years ago but decades of underinvestment has allowed them to fall into disrepair.  Additionally, they no longer address today’s needs in a world rapidly transitioning to green energy, urban lifestyles, and different population patterns.

August 30:         In Jackson, Mississippi, the city’s largest water treatment plant failed leaving 150,000 people without safe running water and closing schools and businesses.

December 1:      President Biden signed a $1 trillion infrastructure bill.

Immigration

It is unconscionable that at a time of unprecedented, attempted immigration that the U.S. Congress has never enacted a single, coherent immigration system.  Immigrants remain vital to the U.S. economy and fill thousands of U.S. jobs including those many Americans do not want.  Now, when there are many vacancies and unfilled jobs, immigrants provide a valuable resource, especially in industries employing lower skilled labor such as construction, agriculture, and hospitality.

June 27:             51 migrants died with 16 people hospitalized after being found inside an abandoned truck in San Antonio, Texas, in extreme heat.

July 24:               Over 1,100 refugees were rescued in separate operations across the Mediterranean in a few days by coast guards and charities with an additional five bodies being recovered.

December 23:   233,740 undocumented migrants were apprehended along the U.S. southern border in November.

Legal

One of the most controversial issues surrounding former President Trump has been whether or not he played a role in the January 6 Capitol attempted insurrection.  Now, even more challenges are mounting for the former President.  Some are civil suits stemming from his pre-Presidential business dealings, others are defamation claims from women he allegedly assaulted, and still more are criminal probes and civil actions that scrutinize his attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 election[3].

August 8:           The FBI conducted a search of former U.S. President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Largo, Florida, home over his handling of classified government documents.

September 21:  New York Attorney General Letitia James filed a lawsuit against Donald Trump and three of his children alleging widespread fraud by inflating his personal net worth by billions of dollars.

Miscellaneous

Sex always sells, regardless of what it is about.  Unfortunately, much that occurs in the U.S. frequently involves sexual assault allegations.  Elsewhere, especially in Muslim controlled areas, it is related to the subjugation and servitude of women frequently based on false Islamic doctrine and Koranic teachings.

May 22:              A report released on sexual abuse by the U.S. Southern Baptist Convention, the country’s largest Protestant denomination, detailed 20 years of suppressing many allegations.

November 10:   Afghanistan’s ruling Taliban banned women from using public parks and funfairs.

November 28:   Protests in Iran killed 451 protesters and 60 security forces with 18,000 having been detained according to Human Rights Activist in Iran.

December 20:   Afghanistan’s ruling Taliban suspended university education for female students as part of its continuing crackdown on women’s rights.

People

Unfortunately, in addition to numerous highs during the past year, 2022 also marked the deaths of those well known around the world: world leaders, politicians, entertainers, athletes, and many more.  Far too many to mention[4].  For most of us, that loss was also personal involving some to whom we were close.  Rather than attempting to name those most prominent, the following will have to stand in token to all of the others.

September 8:    Queen Elizabeth II died at Balmoral Castle after ruling for 70 years.  She was the UK’s longest-serving monarch.  Her eldest son inherited the throne as King Charles III.

December 31:   Pope Emeritus Benedict XVI was the head of the Catholic Church and sovereign of the Vatican City State.  He was considered a leading theologian of the 20^th century and the first pope to resign from office in nearly 600 years,

Politics (International)

There never is any question as to whether a year will have its share of newsworthy events – the majority of which are totally unanticipated.  2022 was such a year that impacted the lives of people around the world raising public discontent.  A high number of global economic and politically motivated antigovernment protests occurred in response to COVID-19 related restrictions, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, and surging inflation.  Additionally, there always are those numerous events and occurrences that will remain mere footnotes to history.

April 10:             Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan was removed from power after losing a no-confidence vote in parliament.

May 15:              Finland’s government said it intends to apply to join NATO following the Russian invasion of Ukraine ending decades of neutrality.

May 16:              Sweden formally announces it will seek to join NATO, after 200 years of neutrality, in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

June 2:               Queen Elizabeth II becomes the first British monarch to celebrate her Platinum Jubilee with four days of celebrations starting with a military parade at Buckingham Palace.

August 4:           A Russian court sentenced WNBA star Brittney Griner to nine years in prison for drug smuggling amid claims she was being used as a pawn between the U.S. and Russia.

September 15:  The European parliament says Hungary can no longer be considered a full democracy stating Viktor Orbán’s government has become a “hybrid regime of electoral autocracy”.

September 27:  Former Prime Minister of Japan Shinzō Abe was assassinated while giving a speech in Nara, Japan.

Politics (National)

After Trump, Joe Biden has provided mature and rational leadership – in many ways even boring.  There has been little in the way of controversy though Democrats would have preferred enactment of additional progressive policies.  The primary source of tension was a Supreme Court increasingly out-of-touch with reality.

January 26:        U.S. Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer announced his retirement.

June 24:             The U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade eliminating the constitutional right to choose abortion in a 6-3 vote.

June 28:             In dramatic testimony to the January 6 Committee hearing, a senior White House aide testified Trump wanted to march to the Capitol and was furious when he was prevented from doing so.

June 30:             Ketanji Brown Jackson (51) was sworn in as 104^th justice of U.S. Supreme Court replacing Stephen Breyer (83) upon his retirement.  She is the 1^st Black woman (the 6^th female and 3^rd Black) to be seated.

November 14:   U.S. President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in person for the first time as national leaders at a G20 meeting in Bali, Indonesia.

November 17:   Nancy Pelosi, the first female speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives and one of its most influential in recent times, announced she intends to step down.

November 30:   U.S. House Democrats elected Hakeem Jeffries as the first Black House Minority leader replacing Nancy Pelosi.

December 19:   The U.S. House January 6 committee voted to refer criminal charges to the Justice Department for Donald Trump’s attempts to overturn the 2020 election and encouraging a mob to attack the Capitol.

Military

While Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine was undoubtably the major news event of 2022, it was only one of many such incidents.  China continued strengthening its military amid increasing threats toward Tiawan.  North Korea continued development of long-range missiles and advanced weapons.  The UN is ineffective in preventing military actions by Security Council members.

February 24:      Russian leader Vladimir Putin announced the start of a “special military operation” in Ukraine to “demilitarize” the country moments before Russia launched a full-scale pre-dawn invasion by land, air, and sea with bombings in several cities amid international condemnation.

August 30:         Ukraine began a counterattack against Russia in the southern Kherson region.

November 2:     Ethiopia’s government and Tigrayan authorities reached an agreement to end fighting after two years at peace talks in South Africa.

December 16:   Japan announced its biggest military build-up since World War II amid concerns over China and North Korea.

Science

Science might be one of the few highlights of 2022 with significant advances being made in almost every field.  Though the initial flight of Artemis I was a success, it remains too expensive for operational use ($4.1 Billion per launch) and far over budget (initial budget was $7 Billion; final projected cost is over $23 Billion) and 2017 launch date.  Turkeys might be able to fly – but not very well.

March 9:            Stolen notebooks belonging to naturalist Charles Darwin, including his famous ‘tree of life’ sketch, were mysteriously returned to the Cambridge University Library after missing for 22 years.

April 8:               Axiom-1 launched to the International Space Station in the first all-private space flight.

April 27:             SpaceX launched its Crew Dragon capsule with four astronauts, including Jessica Watkins who becomes the 1^st black woman to serve an extended mission on the International Space Station.

July 11:               NASA and U.S. President Joe Biden revealed the first images from the James Webb Space Telescope, a cluster of galaxies called SMACS 0723 four billion light-years away, as they appeared 13 billion years ago.

September 26:  NASA’s DART mission successfully crashed into the Dimorphos asteroid in the first planetary defense test.

November 16:   NASA’s Artemis I mission launched from Florida carrying the uncrewed Orion spacecraft on a planned test mission around the Moon and back.

December 5:      Construction began on world’s biggest radio telescope – the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) in South Africa and Australia with a collection area of nearly 500,000 square meters.  It is intended to test Einstein’s theories and search for extra-terrestrial life.

December 13:   The first nuclear fusion reaction in a laboratory setting replicating the same energy that powers the Sun was announced by scientists at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, California.

December 11:   NASA’s Orion spacecraft returned to Earth after completing an Artemis I test flight around the Moon in 25.5 days – a record distance traveled by a spacecraft designed to carry humans.

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Hopefully, 2022 was a good year for you and that the coming year will be even better.  As I am not sure either what or when I will once again be posting anything, I hope all of you have a very …

HAPPY NEW YEAR

That’s what I think, what about you?

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[1] Anthony Jay Robbins is a U.S. author, coach, speaker, and philanthropist known for his infomercials, seminars, and self-help books.

[2] Historical Events in 2022, On This Day, https://www.onthisday.com/events/date/2022, 2021.

[3] Mihm, Karl, Jacob Apkon, and Sruthi Venkatachalam.  Litigation Tracker: Pending Criminal And Civil Cases Against Donald Trump, Just Security, https://www.justsecurity.org/75032/litigation-tracker-pending-criminal-and-civil-cases-against-donald-trump/, 4 December 2022.

[4] Deaths In 2022, Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deaths_in_2022, 31 December 2022.

Biblical Questions

It seems to me….

“No man ever believes that the Bible means what it says: He is always convinced that it says what he means.”  ~ George Bernard Shaw[1].

While admittedly a couple of days late this year, I normally write something with a somewhat religious orientation around the time of Christmas.  As I am intending to temporarily reduce the frequency with which I post these comments so as to complete some other long delayed projects, what I have posted this year is slightly different than usual – basically some of the many questions to which I have no answer.  Most of what I have written is most likely unknowable other than through faith while I am seeking definite answers capable of meeting scientific standards of proof.

I am not a religious scholar and will admit to not being very knowledgeable on the subject.  Similar to most people, however, I do have questions – in fact, many questions.  Sometimes it seems as if that is all I have; endless questions but extremely few answers.  I have read the Bible a number of times – at least four different translations – but it primarily was only reading rather than actually deeply studying.  I will honestly admit to not truly knowing or understanding much of what is said.  Most of these remarks therefore should be considered more as questions rather than as assertions – regardless of the manner in which they might be stated.

I realize that religion is primarily a matter of faith and that most deeply religious people will therefore strongly disagree with much of what I have written but, contrary to all claims that the Bible represents the word of God and is therefore totally correct, it is obvious from changes made over the years, the number of different translations, and the well documented political considerations involved in selecting the Bible’s contents, that much is of human origin.  Differences exist between transcription errors and errors resulting from translations.  Many transcription errors have been corrected based on discovery of very early manuscripts but there are still significant disagreements between various translations.

Many believe that faith confirms that the Bible or other “holy” books are free from error since it is those books themselves that say so.  Since languages differ and words, or even concepts, do not always exist able to facilitate exact translations, it is obvious that having been originally written in non-current languages, any modern version of the Bible cannot be completely true to what was originally intended.

I’m normally skeptical of conspiracy-type theories and always attempt to favor science-based analysis.  Science is fact-based and subject to verification; religion is based primarily only on faith.  Much religious dogma is understandably devoid of any substantiating evidence making it extremely difficult to determine fact from fiction.  Additional problems are the extreme length of time since the actual occurrence of any documented Biblical event and the near total absence of official records.  Regardless, I unfortunately am most likely further contributing to misinformation and conspiracy propagation in even restating some of what I only intend as a question.

With science, researchers can repeatedly test some hypothesis.  Results are then independently peer reviewed verifying their veracity, something impossible with religious dogma.

Most writings, regardless of supposed source, should always be considered somewhat skeptically as it is natural to embellish positive attributes while minimizing anything negative or derogatory.  Authors of semi-historical fiction have existed since the advent of writing and rarely differentiate between fact and fiction.

Even if Christianity originated with the teachings of Jesus, it is fairly obvious that its doctrine began to differ from what He taught almost immediately following His death.  Assuming the Gospels of Mathew, Mark, Luke, and John accurately portray what Jesus essentially taught, early Christian leaders quickly altered His original message to more closely follow the doctrine and beliefs taught by Paul and his adherents.  Political considerations resulting from leadership contentions altered the actual teachings of Jesus to more closely reflect their own beliefs.  It then veered even further to better appeal to Romans and other potential converts.

The biblical canon, or canon of scripture, is the list of books considered to be authoritative scripture by a particular religious community and developed through debate and agreement by supposed religious authorities of their respective faiths and denominations.

The Apostles did not leave a defined set of new scriptures; instead, the New Testament developed over time.  Marcion of Sinope was the first Christian leader in recorded history (later considered to be heretical) to propose and delineate a uniquely Christian canon around 140 AD.  The first Council that accepted the present Catholic canon may have been the Synod of Hippo Regius held in North Africa in 393.

Emperor Constantine commandeered Christianity seeking to attain peace throughout the Roman Empire declaring in 325 at the Council of Nicaea that Christianity was the only official religion of the Roman Empire (though it remains questionable as to whether he was a Christian at the time).

Efforts were made to suppress so-called “Lost Gospels”, at least several of which are likely as accurate and informative as books later included in the Bible.  These are a collection of New Testament Apocrypha, including many works admired and read by early Christians but which were later excluded from the canonical Bible[2].  They include accounts of the young Jesus, particularly the Gospel of Mary and the Protevangelion, which provide additional folklore about the birth and youthful adventures of Jesus.  Some, such as the letters of Paul and Seneca and Herod and Pilate, which most likely are forgeries, add more depth to the historicity of Jesus.  There also are a number of non-canonical epistles such as Laodiceans, in addition to three books of the Shepherd of Hermas, which uses apocalyptic and symbolic imagery.

There are very few details concerning the life of either Mary or Joseph, Jesus’ mother and foster father.  When Jesus was born, Mary could not have been older than 12 or, at most, early 13.  Otherwise, in keeping with Hebrew tradition, the village match maker would have arranged a marriage for her.

Early marriage actually persisted through the ages until relatively recently.  Even Shakespeare’s romantic tragedy Romeo and Juliet opens with Juliet’s mother criticizing her for not yet being married two weeks prior to her fourteenth birthday when many of her peers already had children.  Her father then arranges Juliet’s marriage to Paris leading to the tragedy.  Similarly, Romeo would most likely not have been any older than sixteen for the same reason.

While arranged marriages in the fourteenth century Venetian Republic where Romeo and Juliet is staged were relatively common, they were the rule in ancient Israel.

Very little is said about Joseph, Jesus’ foster father, in the Bible so he also could not have been much older than sixteen or, once again, the village match maker would have intervened.  But a very likely alternative is that Joseph was most likely somewhat older and possibly a widower whose prior wife had died during childbirth – a fairly common occurrence.  He therefore would have been more amenable to marrying a woman already pregnant.

The gospel indicates that Jesus had at least four brothers – James, Joses, Judas, and Simon – and two sisters – Mary and Salome –though it is not stated who was either their mother or father (Mark 6:3)[3].  Some of Jesus’ siblings might therefore have been from Joseph’s prior marriage in addition to any from Mary.  As birth control was nonexistent and children plentiful, most families were relatively large.

Jesus most likely was born either in late spring or early summer since sheep were turned out to pasture.  Also, travel during the winter would have been more difficult so it is doubtful his birth occurred during those months.  Based on admittedly scarce historical records, the census requiring Joseph to travel to Bethlehem possibly would have been in the year 3 AD of our current calendar but is not clearly recorded.  Joseph must have been considered a somewhat prominent member of the community since only village representatives participated in the census.  Otherwise, travel would have overwhelmed available facilities and negatively impacted local economies.  It is not clear why Mary would have accompanied him, especially as she would have no official function and was expecting the birth of her child, other than to fulfil prophecies.

The Bible rarely again mentions Joseph other than when he was instructed to take Jesus to Egypt or to return and then again when Jesus, twelve at the time, became lost in the temple.  Since Joseph was not at Jesus’ crucifixion, it is relatively safe to assume he had died prior to then.  There never is any mention of when or how he died though one source claims he died after falling from a scaffold when Jesus was 14.  Joseph was a carpenter and Jesus is referred to as the carpenter’s son, so Joseph apparently lived sufficiently long for Jesus to learn his trade.

Artists always depict Jesus as European with long dark blond hair and blue eyes.  Though there is never any actual biblical mention of Jesus’ appearance, He obviously would have looked very similar to any other Palestinian Jewish man of the first century.  It therefore should be assumed that He was a relatively typical olive-complected Arab with dark black somewhat wooly shortcut hair, dark eyes, a closely trimmed full beard, and possibly slightly taller than average – slightly over 5-ft. 5-in.  Having been a carpenter, He would have been physically robust.  While not something related to His physical appearance, He also was likely quite charismatic.

The New Testament contains very little overt historical evidence for or against the question of Jesus’ marital state.  Virtually every Jewish man in His day did marry, especially those who were considered Rabbis.

If, when He reached the age at which young men typically married, normally around 16, Jesus and His family realized He had a special calling which would make marriage very difficult, He could then have remained single but this would have been perceived as extremely unusual – even a counter-cultural choice and source of strong criticism.  If Jesus were not married, at least one of the Bible’s gospels would most likely have mentioned it and offered some explanation for His unnatural state of bachelorhood.  As none of the four Gospels mention that Jesus was celibate, if He was not married, someone would definitely have noticed.

Additionally, while not explaining why Jesus was not married when young in accordance with Jewish custom, conjecture about His later relationship with Mary Magdeline greatly increased following publication of the bestselling novel The Da Vinci Code[4].  While a good read, the book is obviously fiction and does not claim to be otherwise.  While the issue – as well as the book – were strongly denounced by the Catholic Church and most scholars, it does raise a number of interesting questions.

In 1947, in Nag Hammadi, Egypt, several Gnostics Gospels were found hidden in jars – and all told the same story – Jesus was married.  While the Gnostic writings are not accepted by Christianity, and some, as previously stated, are obvious forgeries, they strongly contradict the teachings of Paul.  It is apparent to anyone reading the Bible that the followers of Paul had a greater influence on the early Christian church than did the actual followers of Jesus.

Many of today’s Christian scholars are apologists for inconsistent or even contradictory statements in the Bible – especially in order to resolve differences between what Jesus stated and Paul wrote.  Paul was basically a misogynist and scholars struggle to reconcile the two seemingly finding it necessary to perform spiritual contortions in order to do so.

Christianity therefore eventually became more the religion of Paul rather than of Jesus.  Paul considered celibacy as taking a higher road towards God since it allows Christians to concentrate wholly on issues of the spirit.  Several scholars even suggest that he might have favored self-castration to gain freedom from desires of the flesh.  As several of the “lost gospels” strongly imply a romantic relationship between Jesus and Mary Magdeline, Paul’s influence would obviously have been sufficient justification to explain why those gospels were suppressed.  Most Christian scholars continue to deny differences but struggle to adequately explain discrepancies apparent to anyone reading the Bible between what Jesus said and Paul wrote.

Jesus sat to eat with the rich and the poor but preached mostly to the poor – the common ordinary people.  He welcomed the sinner – something Paul would most likely have strongly opposed.

Mary Magdalene plays a very prominent role, as stated in the Gospel of John, and has a very close relationship with Jesus.  There are several assertions, but without confirmation and strongly denied by the Christian Church, that Jesus was actually married to Mary Magdalene and they had two children.

What is obvious is that Jesus had women who were disciples, who traveled with him (considered scandalous at the time), and also acted as patrons for him.  There were no women among the named twelve possibly because they could not be safely sent out as missionaries and also would likely have faced opposition from the male apostles just because they were women.

To the Jews, the number twelve represented the government of God’s kingdom which was founded upon the twelve tribes of Israel, the twelve sons of Jacob.  In naming twelve disciples Jesus was making a prophetic statement to the Jewish people, and specifically to the religious leaders.  While it might be preferrable by today’s standards if He had more directly confronted the misogyny and patriarchy common in His day, His equality in the status of women is clearly stated in Galatians 3:28:  “There is no longer Jew or Gentile, slave or free, male and female.  For you are all one in Christ Jesus”.

In 1980, in Talpiot, just outside of Jerusalem, archaeologists discovered a 2000-year-old burial tomb.   There were ten ossuaries; i.e., limestone coffins; in the tomb.  Six of them were inscribed.  One of them had the Hebrew/Aramaic name “Jesus son of Joseph” scratched on its side.  Another was marked “Maria”.  Yet another — “Yose” — a nickname referred to in the Gospels as belonging to one of Jesus’ brothers (Mark 6:3, Matthew 13:55).  A fourth ossuary was inscribed with the name “Matthew”.  And a fifth — the only one in Greek — with the name “Mariamene”, a Greek version of “Mary” associated in all of Greek literature with only one woman – Mary the Magdalene.  Even more disturbing for Pauline Christians, a sixth inscribed ossuary, apparently of a child, had the name “Judah, son of Jesus” carved on it[5].

Temples, cathedrals?  The most beautiful constructs of man pale in comparison with any handwork of nature.  Why do we pretend otherwise when our best is so lacking?  There is more beauty almost everywhere we look in the natural world than in anything ever constructed by man.  We build huge ornate edifices in which to worship that cannot begin to match what He has already given us.

It is far better to seek the solitude of a wilderness and open one’s heart and mind.  There is greater spiritual presence in a redwood forest than in the most magnificent church, temple, or cathedral.  If one seeks the presence of the Deity, that is where it can be found.

It is understandable that we would want a place of worship we felt to be worthy of Him but would it not be more appropriate to base it on the examples He has given us?  The world is filled with magnificence wherever we look which we cannot begin to match.  One of the greatest sins is to turn a natural area into a trash dump.  Native Americans had a spiritual vision of Nature and could not conceive of individual land ownership.  Today we routinely despoil all we touch without thought or consideration of how we are treating the magnificent gifts we have been given.

I am not anti-Christian – or anti-any other religion – and have no desire to stop Christians from being Christians, to close churches, to ban the Bible, to forbid prayer in school, etc.  Prayer in school is NOT illegal as some conservatives claim; it is only compulsory prayer that is – and it is only right that it should be prohibited.  A number of my early classmates were Jewish whose beliefs also deserve consideration.  Religious instruction or beliefs should always remain the responsibility of the parent or individual.  All those supposed Christians attempting to force their religious beliefs on others need to recognize everyone’s right to live according to their own personal convictions.

Similarly, politicians need to stop attempting to legislate scripture into law.  Those opposing such attempts are not offended by Christianity, they are offended that someone is attempting to force them to live by another’s religious dictates.

Many in the U.S. become very upset at the thought of Muslims possibly imposing Sharia law on them.  To many Christians, that is very similar to the way many of them feel about other Christians trying to impose Biblical law on them.  If someone is really a Christian, they should try to live like one.  They have their freedom to live by their religious beliefs and principles; no one should ever attempt to force them on someone else or it becomes the Christian equivalent of Sharia law.

Many of these issues have been debated for at least 1500 years so it should not be surprising that most conclusions stated by Christian scholars lack conviction.  Most are merely opinions attempting to masquerade as supposed facts.  Much of their reasoning is circular affording the sense that they want everyone to believe them simply because it is what they have stated – to forget proof as there isn’t any.

This is not an attempt to refute what they believe to be true; they are very likely correct.  When attempting any proof, it always should be kept in mind that absence of evidence can never be used to reach an assumption, much less being conclusive proof of any assertion.  Probably the best any of us can hope to know is actually unknowable as there is insufficient documented evidence to ever really know with absolute certainty.

I accept that other’s understanding of Christian beliefs is very likely not only different than mine but also superior.  I readily acknowledge my lack of understanding and strong desire to either establish or refute some of what I have stated.  While I have numerous other questions I would like to ask, these should be sufficient to start.  I’ll continue searching for answers until that time when the unknowable becomes known.

That’s what I think, what about you?

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[1] George Bernard Shaw was an Irish playwright, critic, polemicist, and political activist.

[2] Platt, Rutherford H., Jr.  The Lost Books Of The Bible, http://www.sacred-texts.com/bib/lbob/index.htm, 1926.

[3] Tabor, James.  Sorting Out The Jesus Family: Mother, Fathers, Brothers, and Sisters, TaborBlog, https://jamestabor.com/sorting-out-the-jesus-family-mother-fathers-brothers-and-sisters/#:~:text=That%20Jesus%20had%20four%20brothers%20and%20at%20least,were%20two%E2%80%94a%20Mary%20and%20a%20Salome%20%28Mark%206%3A3%29., 19 December 2015.

[4] Brown, Dan.  The Da Vinci Code (Doubleday), Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Da_Vinci_Code, 2003.

[5] Jacobovici, Simcha.  Jesus’ Marriage To Mary The Magdalene Is Fact, Not Fiction, HuffPost, https://www.huffpost.com/entry/jesus-marriage-to-mary-th_b_6225826, 26 November 2015.

The Problem Of Inflation

It seems to me….

“Inflation destroys savings, impedes planning, and discourages investment.  That means less productivity and a lower standard of living.”  ~ Kevin Brady[1].

Inflation is essentially a decline in the purchasing power of money over time.  While there are a number of motivating factors driving inflation, it can occur when an increase in the supply of money and credit stimulates demand for goods and services in an economy resulting in it growing more quickly than the economy’s production capacity.  This is possibly relevant today as governments enacted stimulus packages in response to COVID worth trillions of dollars.

Policymakers enacted those relief measures to prevent COVID from setting off a deep recession, but in some cases, they might have gone too far: The objective of stimulus packages is to elevate spending and demand keeping the economy afloat but if supply can’t keep up with the new demand, prices will rise.  The U.S. spent the most of any country in the world on economic relief, likely leading to too much demand which possibly then contributed to inflation.  For much of 2021, the Federal Reserve viewed rising prices as a temporary phenomenon failing to acknowledge inflation was enduring until late in the year.

Concern about inflation, especially in the U.S., is driven mainly by right-wing economists who see a relationship between state spending, debt, debt monetization, and inflation — all of which are contestable linkages.  Contrary to conservative claims that U.S. inflation is the direct result of too much federal stimulus, inflation is currently occurring worldwide, and is slightly less in the U.S. than in many other countries, indicating stimulus programs were not the primary cause.

While all of us are confronting higher prices, the burden falls most heavily on households with more limited resources who spend 77 percent of their income on necessities compared to only 31 percent by higher-income households.

If the Federal Reserve continues its efforts to combat inflation by keeping interest rates high and for longer than the market expects, it will sufficiently constrain the global economy (and risk assets) driving spreads on corporate bonds wider and equity values lower possibly leading to a recession.

The current Fed Funds rate, which is the interest rate at which banks and other depository institutions lend money to each other, usually on an overnight basis, is 4.5 percent (a year ago it was 0.25)[2].  The Fed attempts to maintain an inflation rate of 2 percent – the current U.S. rate of inflation is 7.11 percent[3].

The biggest problem facing the economy right now is that prices are rising much too quickly.  That dynamic stems partly from the lingering effects of the pandemic, which continues to disrupt international supply chains, and global forces, such as the war in Ukraine, which has pushed up the price of food and energy.  Most economists agree that rapid inflation is also at least partly the result of excessive demand: unemployment is extremely low and wages have increased – consumers want more cars, airline tickets, and restaurant meals than companies can produce pushing up prices.

Inflation can be considered to be two related crises rather than only one.  In the first, global disruptions from the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine prompted inflation to spike around the world.  In the second, some countries — including the U.S. — implemented domestic policy decisions[4] that possibly also contributed to domestic inflation.

COVID is largely responsible for initial inflationary increases as the pandemic and its fallout created a supply shortage when factories closed and logistics chains were interrupted simultaneous to a spike in demand for purchases for everything from home furniture to air travel resulting in a supply imbalance prompting price increases.

Inflation in Europe began outpacing that in the U.S. when the war in Ukraine created its own disruptions.  Russia’s invasion shut down Ukraine — one of the world’s breadbaskets and a major exporter of grain — raising food prices.  Additionally, Western sanctions in response to the war cut off Europe from Russian oil and gas on which the continent heavily relied.

The U.S. currently also has an employment crisis – too many available jobs and an insufficient number of skilled applicants affecting many industries including agriculture, education, manufacturing, healthcare, hospitality, computer software, and construction.  A recent survey of the commercial construction industry shows that 85 percent of contractors are having difficulty finding workers, 34 percent of whom have had to turn down work.

The Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) is the level of unemployment below which the rate of inflation can be expected to rise.  The concept of NAIRU rose from the concept of the Phillips Curve which implies a negative correlation between the rate of inflation and the rate of unemployment in industrialized economies.

While there is no specific method of directly determining the NAIRU, it can be indirectly estimated using various statistical methods.  Both the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Federal Reserve have set the NAIRU level at between 5 to 6 percent.  The current U.S. unemployment rate is estimated to be only 3.7 percent[5] which strongly contributes to inflation.

Relatively little can be done to eliminate most of the factors intensifying inflation.  Some, such as improvements in international supply chains will require time.  Similarly, little can be done about Russia’s war on Ukraine.  The one area lending itself to simultaneously resolving several issues is employment and immigration.  The U.S. needs workers and migrants are overwhelming border crossings.

There are a number of possible actions that would contribute to resolving employment issues including:

• Remove the cap on employment-based immigrant visas for both seasonal agricultural workers and high-tech professionals.
• Provide international students who graduate from fully accredited U.S. universities with greater opportunities to obtain employment-based green cards upon graduation.
• Enhance and expand opportunities for entrepreneurs to obtain permanent residency so they can develop and build businesses.
• Eliminate educational costs at fully accredited public institutions to increase the number of skilled job applicants.
• Expand access to affordable, quality childcare for working parents so both parents are able to seek employment.

Unfortunately, these measures, regardless of their obvious benefit, would not only require time to approve and implement but would also likely face extreme conservative opposition.

If companies continue adding jobs and raising pay, inflation will likely remain high and the Fed will remain aggressive in its efforts to tame it.  If job growth stalls and unemployment rises, the Fed could pause sooner to avoid causing a recession.

Part of the problem is that wages remain relatively low even though a number of states raised their minimum wage in 2022.  Prior to that, the federal minimum wage had remained at only $7.25 since 2009 which provides an annual pay to a full-time minimum wage worker of only around $15,000, just above the federal poverty line for individuals and below it for households with two or more people.  A bill increasing the federal minimum wage, H.R.603 – Raise the Wage Act of 2021, faces strong GOP opposition and remains stalled in Congress.

It is unlikely there will be any significant wage increases without both additional worker availability and a much higher federal minimum wage – current wage increases are unable to fully offset rising inflation.  Of greatest benefit would be shifting income from owners, upper-level managers, and big investors to the working class as much of the added income that has been produced in the past 40 years has gone to the top 5 percent of income earners.

Increased unionization would likely be beneficial as unions frequently have sufficient bargaining power to negotiate higher wages, better benefits, and better working conditions for their members[6].  Unionized public sector employees generally earn approximately 11.2 percent more on average than nonunionized employees in comparable jobs with similar education, occupation, and experience though private-sector nonunion wages more recently have, overall, grown more quickly.

Unions frequently face strong employer opposition, organizer harassment, and members being fired.  Passage of H.R.842 – Protecting the Right to Organize Act of 2021 (PRO Act) would address many major shortcomings with current laws by helping to restore workers’ ability to organize with their co-workers and negotiate for better pay, benefits, and fairness on the job.  The act was approved by the House but has not been acted upon in the Senate but ultimate passage appears unlikely due to strong conservative opposition.

Since the 1950s, every time inflation has exceeded 4 percent and unemployment has been below 5 percent, the U.S. economy has gone into a recession within two years[7].  Inflation is currently at 8.5 percent and unemployment is 3.6 percent—suggesting a recession might be very difficult to avert.

The real economy, the financial system, and the central bank work in concert suggesting that any recession would likely be relatively mild.  Households are less indebted than they were prior to the 2008 crash; “prudential regulations have pushed risky activities into darker corners of the financial system” and a dip in equity values “looks like an orderly sell-off and an early success for the Fed” [8].

That’s what I think, what about you?

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[1] Kevin Patrick Brady is a U.S. Republican politician who served as U.S. representative for Texas’s 8^th congressional district from 1997 to 2023.

[2] Fed Funds Rate, Bankrate, https://www.bankrate.com/rates/interest-rates/federal-funds-rate/, 14 December 2022.

[3] McMahon, Tim.  What Is The Current Inflation Rate?, InfaltionData.com, What is the Current U.S. Inflation Rate? (inflationdata.com), 10 November 2022.

[4] Lopez, German.  The Morning, The New York Times, https://messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/template/oakv2?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20221019&instance_id=75037&nl=the-morning&productCode=NN&regi_id=186487401&segment_id=110405&te=1&uri=nyt%3A%2F%2Fnewsletter%2F9c807dd3-a52b-510d-9e71-048dcb71e8e5&user_id=fa3df79c10a1b833d74faa50481e187e, 19 October 2022.

[5] TED: The Economics Daily, U.S. Bureau Of Labor Statistics, https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2022/unemployment-rate-3-7-percent-in-november-2022.htm, 6 December 2022.

[6] Douglas, Christopher C., PhD.  The Advantages And Disadvantages Of Unionization, Mackinac Center for Public Policy, https://www.mackinac.org/S2011-07, 31 December 2011.

[7] Domash, Alex, and Lawrence Summers.  History Says U.S. Unlikely To Avert Recession, The Palm Beach Post, https://www.palmbeachpost.com/story/opinion/2022/05/04/research-shows-efforts-stem-inflation-send-us-into-recession/9617576002/ 4 May 2022.

[8] Private Equity May Be Heading For A Fall, The Economist, https://www.economist.com/business/2022/07/07/private-equity-may-be-heading-for-a-fall, 7 July 2022.

COVID Persistence

It seems to me….

“We are living in a world that has been changed by COVID, and our legislative priorities need to support our communities and our workers to address the needs of our new environment.” ~  Jeff Van Drew[1].

The cost of preparing for and preventing a pandemic is obviously considerably less than actually responding to one.  Response to the coronavirus pandemic was a collective failure due to not taking pandemic prevention, preparedness, and response sufficiently serious and prioritizing it accordingly.  The Global Preparedness Monitoring Board (GPMB) estimates that the response to COVID has so far cost about $10 to $16 trillion though actual costs are likely to exceed those estimates if aggregated mortality, morbidity, mental-health, and direct economic losses are included.

In the five years prior to when its viral agent, SARS-CoV-2, began its wide travels, there were many warnings that a globally emergent disease should be anticipated.  Alerts appeared in academic papers, federal reports, think-tank war games, and portfolios were even prepared at the White House to be handed off to incoming teams.  The novel coronavirus still managed to slip through known gaps in preventive defenses: it is a wildlife disease transmitted to humans by proximity and predation, spread by rapid travel, eased by insufficient surveillance, and amplified by nationalist politics and mutual distrust[2].

In the initial stages of the pandemic the global scientific community shared data and collaborated on the early development of diagnostics but many countries did not sufficiently recognize the danger leading to delays in decisive action.

A number of countries did move expeditiously to contain the virus.  The U.S., however, stumbled along in denial as if willfully blind.  With less than four percent of the global population, the U.S. soon accounted for more than a fifth of all COVID deaths.  The percentage of U.S. disease victims was six times higher than the global average.  Achieving the world’s highest rate of morbidity and mortality provoked not shame but only further lies, scapegoating, and boasts of miracle cures as dubious as the claims of a carnival grifter.

Common-sense solutions such as face coverings or social distancing were undercut or ignored.  More than three months after the CDC strongly recommended facial coverings, then President Trump refused to wear one and held political rallies packing thousands of people into closed arenas without requiring them to be worn.  Taking their example from Trump, at the end of June 2020 only 29 percent of Republicans or Republican-leaning independents believed masks should always be worn in public locations.

The U.S. essentially failed in its initial response to COVID-19: a failure of leadership at many levels and across parties; a distrust of scientists, the media, and expertise in general; deeply ingrained cultural attitudes and individuality; and how human lives are valued all combined resulting in a totally inadequate response.  The U.S. was caught unprepared with no vaccine, antiviral, or effective response plan.

The federal government’s most glaring failure was to not facilitate an adequate testing infrastructure.  The primary response to virus spread has been shown to require early identification, isolation of the infected, contact tracing and testing, and appropriate treatment.  Trump apparently believing any increase in cases would reflect badly on him, instead suggested there should be less testing rather than more.  30 – 45 percent of those who contract the virus are asymptomatic, failing to show symptoms but able to infect others.  Only by detecting and quarantining those infected can infections be controlled until sufficient numbers of people have been either vaccinated or contracted the virus to achieve herd immunity.

COVID-19 was not simply devastating on multiple levels; it revealed what had long been ignored[3].  Widespread shortages of personal protective equipment (PPEs); facemasks, gloves, medical gowns; ventilators, and other critical items were reported from every location where they were needed.  As the crisis unfolded, and Americans were dying every minute of every day, a country that had once manufactured fighter planes by the hour could not manage to produce the paper masks or cotton swabs essential for protecting against the disease.  The nation that defeated smallpox and polio and led the world for generations in medical innovation and discovery, was reduced to ridicule by a President who advocated use of household disinfectants as a treatment for a disease he was unable to intellectually understand.

It should have been different.  The Obama White House established protocols and chains of command for a response to these types of threats, but the Trump administration terminated the early warning program[4] designed to alert it to potential pandemics just three months prior to when it is believed COVID-19 began infecting people in China.  Even though government officials, academics, and business leaders participated in dozens of pandemic simulations over the prior two decades, none of the exercises ever anticipated that a President would basically sideline the primary federal public health agency.

Estimates for the number of people who develop long COVID—a suite of lingering symptoms—range from 10 percent to as high as 50 percent of cases[5] resulting in tens of millions of people around the world continuing to wrestle with its viral aftermath.  Their conditions range from frustrating to totally debilitating.  People are reporting damage to not only smell and taste, but to all five senses.  Others have long-lasting heart issues, fatigue, shortness of breath, and brain fog.  Early research suggests that COVID-19 infection can cause more serious neurological damage akin to dementia.  Also of concern is that long COVID affects people, including many children, who had only a mild reaction to the virus.

In past coronavirus epidemics, such as SARS in 2003 and MERS in 2012, research scientists had begun advanced work on vaccines but funding and interest were reduced as outbreaks waned.  If research had continued, the pandemic’s duration might have been shortened and much suffering avoided.

Men and women are experiencing post-COVID problems with reproductive health.  National Institute of Health (NIH) research has shown that pregnant women who had COVID-19 are 40 percent more likely than those uninfected to have serious complications including miscarriages and stillbirths.  Thousands of other women are reporting severe disruptions to their menstrual cycles.

Poverty has a greater impact than any technical intervention and will most likely lead to more frequent future pathogen occurrences[6].  Growing economic inequality in the U.S. is driving a resurgence of Hepatitis, Legionnaires Disease, and other infections.  Globally, climate change and rampant urbanization are creating conditions in which diseases emerge more frequently and quickly spread further.

COVID-19 has not impacted all population segments equally: It has further worsened inequality, increased prevalence of depressive disorders, and set back students.  Oxygen required for hospitals even delayed rocket launches.  Those who rely on urban transit, live in public housing or nursing homes, or are subject to the persistent effects of structural racism have suffered disproportionately in the pandemic.

Today, 3.3 million people are expected to die each year from viral zoonotic diseases.  Additionally, the world is increasingly threatened by new generations of bacteria resistant to even the most powerful antibiotics.  A rising number of people are infected yearly and die from these so-called “superbugs”, much of which is due to increased resistance from overuse of antibiotics in farming, prescription drugs, and antibacterial soaps.

In addition to preventing pandemics by suppressing the emergence of novel and well-known pathogens, responsive actions reduce carbon dioxide emissions, conserve water supplies, protect Indigenous Peoples’ rights, and conserve biodiversity.  They also prevent indirect damages not included in any related cost estimates, such as psychological distress from lost jobs, loss of relatives, social isolation, delayed medical treatments, and education loss or delays.

While it may not be possible to mitigate every risk, there are ways countries can work together to fortify health systems and reduce the probability of future coronavirus-like pandemic occurrences.  Strong, well-funded health systems, supported by immunization programs and robust early warning systems that provide an alert to new diseases, are all factors in risk reduction.  Being vigilant to the potential for outbreaks means developing surveillance systems for collecting data and forecasting epidemics.  Investment in preparedness would likely cost about $5 per person per year – pandemic preparation is always less costly than response.

Vaccines are, from either an economic or humanitarian perspective, one of the most cost-effective health interventions available.  A notable success in the COVID-19 response was the unprecedented speed at which vaccines were developed, approved, and rolled out regardless of the ability to pay for them.

Greater coordination and support for research and development (R&D) in health emergencies is needed to create a sustainable mechanism to ensure vaccines and treatments are developed quickly, available early, and distributed equitably and effectively.  Technology transfers where vaccine developers share both their intellectual property and the vital know-how needed to make vaccines with other manufacturers, particularly those in emerging economies, is also significantly beneficial.

The pandemic illustrated why the U.S. needs a free, universal healthcare system.  The lack of a national health insurance program affects everything from vaccine hesitancy to the ability to get a test to how the virus will be managed in the future.  About half of all Americans receive health coverage through their employer, but with record numbers filing for unemployment insurance, millions lost their health insurance in the midst of the largest pandemic in a century just when they may have most need it.  Even many who had insurance coverage found care to be unaffordable.  Lack of insurance was deadly for far too many; nearly one in three COVID-19 deaths was related to gaps in health insurance.  Failure to receive testing and treatment because of cost harms everyone by prolonging the pandemic, increasing its morbidity and mortality, and exacerbating its economic impact.

The increasing threat from emergent diseases is only one aspect of an interrelated social, economic, environmental ecosystem which includes other issues such as potential political collapse, climate change, urbanization, and deforestation.  Climate change is reducing habitats and pushing animals on land and sea to move to new locations creating opportunities for pathogens to enter new hosts.  Vaccines and drugs can be rapidly developed but unless a way to deal with these other related issues, responses will always be less than optimal.

Now, as we re-emerge from pandemic-motivated anxiety, it remains somewhat uncomfortable to see people without facial coverings in public places.  It also is time to consider what is necessary to be better prepared prior to the next zoonosis.

In the future it will be necessary to develop and approve vaccines even more quickly that protect against as-yet unknown threats, and to increase and globalize vaccine manufacturing.  A global distribution network and supply chains able to provide vaccines to all countries should be developed prior to any future need, ensuring that all the necessary logistics, personnel, monitoring, and data systems are in place.

A number of bills, such as S.3799 PREVENT Pandemics Act[7], have been introduced in Congress to establish a wide range of programs and activities to address public health preparedness and response.  While beneficial, the measure would require substantial funding and its probability of eventual passage does not seem favorable leaving us inadequately prepared for what inevitably will again occur.

While the COVID-19 virus has become less virulent due to medical innovations^[8], for now, threats from the pandemic still remain.  Development of new vaccines, medications, and testing options, along with natural herd immunity among those who have recovered from the disease will continue to facilitate even greater future protection and recovery.  While there is a possibility the virus will continue to mutate and possibly combine the contagiousness of the omicron variant with the virulence of the delta variant, it is more likely to continue to evolve and circulate, becoming endemic and remaining in the community at a stable rate in the future.

COVID-19 might have become a tamer disease but that does not mean threats of other new deadly zoonotic diseases do not exist.  Hopefully, with foresight and planning, the world will be better prepared for the next infectious challenges that emerge.

That’s what I think, what about you?

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[1] Jefferson H. Van Drew is a U.S. republican politician and dentist serving as the U.S. representative for New Jersey’s 2^nd congressional district .

[2] McKenna, Maryn.  In The Fight Against Infectious Disease, Social Changes Are the New Medicine, Scientific American, https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/in-the-fight-against-infectious-disease-social-changes-are-the-new-medicine/, September 2020, pp20-56.

[3] Davis, Wade.  The Unraveling Of America, RollingStone, https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/political-commentary/covid-19-end-of-american-era-wade-davis-1038206/?fbclid=IwAR2g4crbtzGPQDBq-B72pq_Da8LiE8H7QhxI5zwXrTBcz-oKEHm3SWLILLw, 6 August 2020.

[4] Palma, Bethania.  Did Trump Administration Fire The US Pandemic Response Team?, Snopes, https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-fire-pandemic-team/, 28 February 2020.

[5] How Long COVID Weakens The Body, National Geographic, https://email.nationalgeographic.com/H/2/v60000017f28155d02aa0f30f4bbe5be68/4e92c1d2-8019-43b9-ae75-2bcbf496eaf2/HTML, 23 February 2022.

[6] Hodson, Richard (Senior Editor).  Pandemic Preparedness, Scientific American, pp S1-S20, December 2022.

[7] Walsh, Jennifer F. and Kate M. Kros.  Update: What To Know About PREVENT Pandemics Act Following March 15 Committee Markup, FOLEY, https://www.foley.com/en/insights/publications/2022/03/what-know-prevent-pandemics-act-committee-markup, 28 March 2022.

[8] Usheroff, Marni.  Future Of COVID-19: What Comes Next, Cedars Sinai, https://www.cedars-sinai.org/newsroom/future-of-covid-19-what-comes-next/, 2 March 2022.

The Challenge To Democracy

It seems to me….

“If there is no struggle, there is no progress.”  ~ Frederick Douglass[1].

Politics should never be divorced from conscience.  When any element of our nation demands acceptance of its goals while failing to recognize any contrary opinion, it is deserving of rejection.  Resolution of differences in a peaceful and democratic manner is the foundation of our nation where minority opinions are afforded a voice to be heard, though the majority prevails.  Our nation is larger than any single faction of which it is composed but if it is to remain a nation of laws, there must be a mutual tolerance of diverse beliefs.

Recent challenges to democracy include a deterioration in the integrity of constitutional democracy, manipulation of state election laws to limit or overturn the will of the voters, and a global trend toward autocracy in places where democratic institutions have long prevailed.

We apparently are living in an age of post-truths; post-facts.  Explanatory and investigative claims for the causes of our democratic decline include the rise in election denial and political violence (especially on the right), disinformation and peddling of falsehoods, people and money behind the 6 January 2020 insurrection, origins and popularity of leading conspiracy theories, and the partisan political motives of some leading jurists – the Supreme Court is now dominated by an extremely conservative Republican-appointed bloc.  Two of the past four Presidents, who appointed those jurists, have taken office despite losing the popular vote.  Senators representing a majority of Americans are often unable to pass bills, partly due to the increasing use of the filibuster.

The U.S. has gradually sorted itself by population similarities and as a result become progressively less democratic, creating a disconnect between public opinion and election outcomes affecting every branch of the federal government: the Presidency, Congress, and even the Supreme Court.  The makeup of the federal government reflects public opinion less closely than it once did and the chance of a true constitutional crisis — in which the rightful winner of an election cannot take office — has risen substantially.

The Constitution gives special privileges to the residents of small states resulting in the preferences of many voters in large states becoming increasingly irrelevant.  Polls indicate a general decline in voter confidence in democracy when it is perceived to have failed to deliver what the majority believe is in accordance with the basic democratic social contract.  The U.S., which has long considered itself a beacon of democracy, was recently added to a list of “backsliding” democracies in an annual report[2] on the global state of democracy, marking a serious decline in international observers’ assessments of U.S. political stability.

Challenges can be expected to increase in the future.  Everywhere one looks, there are indications of social, economic, environmental, and technological change.  In response, economies need to restructure to cope with not only those changes, but also disinformation and rising threats of conflict.  The underserved, marginalized, oppressed, and persecuted have found their voice and are making themselves heard as never before, having been previously mostly ignored.  That age is likely now relegated to the past.  Social norms are extremely resilient and difficult to permanently change but, hopefully, this time there will be a meaningful transformation resulting in an improvement in the lives of all citizens rather than only the wealthy and privileged.

Rural Whites overwhelmingly vote Republican while most minorities and urban Whites vote Democrat.  If the U.S. were divided into two countries—one blue, one red—the blue U.S. would fit comfortably with Northern European Protestant countries, while the red U.S.’ cultural values would move it closer to Nigeria and Saudi Arabia.  For the country’s political future, the central question is if these two U.S.s can find a way to live, work, cooperate, and tolerate one another.

To do so, both major U.S. political parties need to become more aware of how they have contributed to the widening ideological divide they have created.  The Republican Party essentially struck a Faustian bargain when it compromised its traditional values as the “Party of Lincoln” at their 1964 Presidential Nominating Convention, agreeing to not oppose segregation in order to gain the backing of southern Dixiecrats.  Democrats need to once again become the party that accomplishes goals, builds things, and makes government work for people.  There is a historical precedent for a wave of political progressiveness following conservative surges – hopefully now is such a time.

An overabundance of incivility remains on both sides of the political divide.  Much criticism is primarily based on unfounded political beliefs promulgated by Trump and his cult of unwavering supporters.  It is time for all of us as a nation to move beyond strict partisanship and act as adults.  It doesn’t begin with “the other side” changing their behavior.  It is dependent upon each of us as individuals letting our representatives know we expect them to act in the best interests of our nation rather than of either a political party, their sponsors, or personal self-interests.

There are also the overly sanctimonious self-righteous religious extremists who have either never known or forgotten the true basis of Christian faith.  Many of those hypocrites were even deluded into supporting the most immoral and corrupt person the U.S. has ever had as its President.  There probably are those who consider Trump becoming President as divine retribution for the many past sins of our nation.

Many prominent Republicans have criticized Trump for fomenting violence, undermining democracy, or making racist comments.  Privately, many more of them have harshly stated their disdain for Trump and want him gone from politics but are unwilling to publicly stand up to him, believing that doing so would jeopardize their future in the Republican Party given his continued apparent support by a significant percentage of their party’s base.  Republican lawmakers fear that confronting Trump, or even saying in public how they actually feel about him, amounts to signing their political death warrant.  Similarly, many congressional Republicans do not want to hear what the 6 January 2021 Congressional hearings have found, preferring to reject the truth rather than confront the facts of what actually occurred.

It is relatively easy to be an armchair quarterback given 20/20 hindsight following some recent occurrence.  While many Democratic politicians attempted to express optimism in the leadup to the 2022 midterm election, everyone objectively knew that it would not go totally well for their party.  Politicians from all parties were disingenuous.  It was only due to Republican candidates failing to sufficiently distance themselves from election deniers that the results were not considerably worse for Democrats.  Democrats ignored the basic issue concerning most voters and were fortunate to retain their majority in the Senate, losing it only in the House.

Trump remains dangerous regardless of what he does – dangerous if he does not run; more dangerous if he runs and loses again; most dangerous if he runs and wins[3].  In U.S. counties where Trump held campaign rallies, there was a 226 percent increase in reported hate crimes over similar counties where he did not hold a rally[4].

U.S. democracy has faced numerous challenges since its origin in the 1700s until today, but never in that time has the American dream ever faltered even in the face of apparent failure and destruction.  In the past, many of those challenges reflected an ideological struggle between those closer to John Locke’s classical Liberal model of government and those advocating a social democratic model based on jean-Jean Rousseau’s view of the Social Contract.  The challenge in 2020 – 2022 was different.  The nation’s basic institutions remain but the social fabric sustaining them is gradually fraying.

Never before in its history has the U.S. had a challenge similar to the refusal of a President to accept his defeat prior to Trump in 2020.  Judges found that more than 60 of Trump’s postelection legal challenges were lacking in merit.  State and federal investigations repeatedly found no evidence of widespread voter fraud in 2020.  Even Trump’s own Department of Homeland Security, Justice Department, and FBI vouched for the election’s integrity.  We can only hope sanity is once again restored and such acts are never tolerated again in the future.  It is alarming to consider how many congressional members failed to ratify the election results – any that did so should have been immediately censured.

Unfortunately, an all-too plausible future scenario is that after a disputed national election, a combination of an effective Republican supermajority in Congress, reinforced by an antidemocratic President, a federal government consisting primarily of those selected for their similar views and loyalty, plus the current far-right Supreme Court could end the U.S. experiment in democracy.  A rogue election official could attempt to prematurely stop the counting of ballots, pervert the Electoral College process, turn over the outcome of the election to partisan state legislators, or simply refuse to certify the result, all while publicly sowing doubt about the validity of the election process.

By the end of the primaries, half of all races for governor and more than a third of all races for secretary of state included an election denier according to States United Action, a nonpartisan organization dedicated to fair elections.  At least 11 GOP nominees for secretary of state—often a state’s top election official— embraced Trump’s Big Lie.  Validly elected officials must serve as a bulwark between the will of the voters and conspiracy theorists willing to subvert it.  While most such recreant candidates lost their 2022 election bid, many can be expected to continue in their dissident attempts in the future.

Public support for liberal democracy during the postwar era rested heavily on rising incomes for the working-class, which in turn largely resulted from growing populations and job-creating technologies.  Now, an aging population and rapid automation will place even greater strain on our democracy in the coming decades.  It is predicted the U.S. working-age population will decline by 12 percent over the next 30 years necessitating entitlement reductions for the elderly, decreased social spending, higher taxes, and/or significantly increased immigration – any of which could likely produce a political backlash.

As we move into a postindustrial age, machines are eliminating jobs more quickly than displaced workers can retrain for new ones; wages for low and middle-skill workers are stagnating; and millions of people—especially those without college degrees—are being forced either into lower paying positions or entirely out of the workforce.  The resulting economic divergence has created a deepening political divide between the “haves” and “have-nots” where political opponents regard each other as existential enemies.

Candidates of both major parties in the U.S. offer very divergent perspectives on the most important issues facing us including climate change, war, taxes, abortion, education, gender and sexual identity, immigration, crime, and the role of government in American life.  They reflect basic cultural fears, especially among White people, that the U.S. is being transformed into a new country, more racially diverse and less religious, with rapidly changing attitudes toward gender, language, and more.  Perhaps most importantly, they disagree on democracy itself, especially one of its essential pillars: willingness to accept defeat at the polls.

While campaigning, Biden repeatedly labeled climate change as one of four urgent crises—alongside the COVID-19 pandemic, economic collapse, and racial justice.  Among its many planks, the Biden campaign’s platform called for creating one million new jobs in the auto industry and electric-vehicle supply chain; spending billions on research and development of clean-energy technology; and supporting farmers who rethink agricultural production.  While Biden had the best midterms of any President in 20 years, the reality is that he now faces a Republican-controlled House that will likely oppose the majority of his proposals.

The perception and reality of what constitutes an actual threat to democracy in the U.S. sharply differs.  This failure of consensus is primarily related to the difference between what government, business, and media have promised and what has actually been delivered.  While democracy is in crisis, it does not mean it will collapse.  That, on average, normally takes about a decade from the onset of democratic backsliding until ending in either a breakdown or recovery, but it should be considered indicative of the need for a long overdue course correction.

John F. Kennedy once said, “Democracy is never a final achievement.  It is a call to an untiring effort”.  While I frequently disagree with legislative decisions made by elected officials, I still believe democracy to be the best form of government and wish everyone else shared that perspective.  Conservative extremists who attempted a coup to overturn legally validated election results illustrate the escalating threat to our form of government.

The U.S. currently stands at a precipice jeopardizing whether our experiment in governing can survive.  Restoring democracy will require the U.S. to once again become a nation where every citizen and resident feels a part of a shared community in which they have a voice and a path to a common future.  Given the current ideological differences dividing us, that might be difficult.

That’s what I think, what about you?

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[1] Frederick Douglass was a U.S. social reformer, abolitionist, orator, writer, and statesman.

[2] Global State O Democracy Report 2022:  Forging Contracts In A Time Of Discontent, Global State of Democracy Initiative, https://idea.int/democracytracker/gsod-report-2022, 2022.

[3] The January 6^th Committee Has Hobbled Donald Trump, The Economist, https://www.economist.com/united-states/2022/07/21/the-january-6th-committee-has-hobbled-donald-trump, 21 July 2022.

[4] Choi, David.  Hate Crimes Increased 226% In Places Trump Held A Campaign Rally In 2016, Study Claims, Business Insider, https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-campaign-rally-hate-crimes-study-maga-2019-3?fbclid=IwAR0jsRKN2C39ozEIrqzSMY03fUIOokGt3sKKMi9ZquLJkd207DZL8aF1Hio, 23 March 2019.

The U.S. Immigration Labyrinth

It seems to me….

“America was indebted to immigration for her settlement and prosperity.  That part of America which had encouraged them most had advanced most rapidly in population, agriculture, and the arts.”  ~ James Madison[1].

Many living in the U.S. seemingly have forgotten that other than for those of Native American ancestry, we are a nation of immigrants.  The remainder of us can trace our heritage back to somewhere else, whether our ancestors came on the Mayflower or a slave ship, into Ellis Island or Angel Island, into JFK Airport or across the Rio Grande.

The U.S. has a long legacy of welcoming immigrants and offering a safe haven to those fleeing religious persecution, political oppression, violence, or tyranny.  Many who have come were widows, orphans, or victims of rape or torture.  Others were persecuted based on their ethnic group, gender identity, or sexual orientation.  Some were in danger because they worked alongside the U.S. military in their native countries.  Refugee resettlement reflects our traditional values and hundreds of communities across the country open their doors to refugees.

At its founding, the U.S. was, as our first President, George Washington, said, “…open to receive not only the opulent and respectable stranger, but the oppressed and persecuted of all nations and religions”.  Though at various moments in our history we have not fully lived up to that standard, it remains a core premise of our national identity.

Historically, welcoming immigrants has been extremely beneficial.  Generally, economic research has shown that the arrival of low-wage foreign workers has little or no negative impact on native-born workers’ wages or employment.  Under current circumstances, welcoming more low-wage foreign workers could address acute labor shortages in certain industries helping hard-hit areas of the country recover while staving off higher inflation.

The National Academy of Sciences recently released a comprehensive report finding that immigration has an overall positive impact on economic growth[2].  Almost all economists agree that immigration improves the GDP and stimulates business development by increasing the supply of workers and entrepreneurs.  There admittedly is some disagreement about the net fiscal impact of first-generation migrants as they tend to be less educated and therefore earn lower wages than the native population and consequently tend to contribute less in taxes.  But this is disputed as the second generation contributes more in taxes on a per capita basis during their working ages than did either their parents or other native-born Americans.  In 2019, 85 percent of clients participating in an International Rescue Committee (IRC) employment program were economically self-sufficient within six months; refugees paid on average $21,000 more in taxes than they receive in government benefits.

The terms asylum seeker, immigrant, migrant, and refugee are often incorrectly used interchangeably.  The differences between the four, however, are important.  According to the IRC[3]:

Refugees are people living outside of the U.S. who were “forced to flee [their] home because of war, violence, or persecution, often without warning”.

Asylum seekers are people who are “seeking international protection from dangers in [their] home country, but whose claim for refugee status hasn’t been determined legally”.  People seeking asylum are applying inside the U.S. but whether a person is seeking asylum or status as a refugee, they have to meet a challenging burden of proof demonstrating “a well-founded fear of persecution” on the basis of race, religion, national origin, political opinion, or member of a social group”.

Migrants are people who are “moving from place to place (within [their] country or across borders) usually for economic reasons such as seasonal work”.

Immigrants are people who have made “a conscious decision to leave his or her home and move to a foreign country with the intention of settling there”.

Essentially everyone agrees that comprehensive immigration reform is one of the most important keys to boosting economic growth and helping to solve our nation’s fiscal problems.  Congress, however, has been unable to reach an agreement addressing the challenge of immigration reform for years despite several attempts.

In 1986 under President Ronald Reagan, Congress granted legal amnesty to some three million undocumented residents.  In 2007, President George W. Bush attempted to pass a compromise bill which failed to win sufficient Senate support.  The last major attempt to reform U.S. immigration was by President Barack Obama in 2013 following a decade in which Congress debated numerous immigration reforms to address demand for high- and low-skilled labor, the legal status of the millions of undocumented immigrants living in the country, border security, and interior enforcement.  None of which were approved.

Fixing the immigration system would boost the economy.  The U.S. has a need for workers as there are many more available jobs than available applicants to fill them.  Since the basic reason there currently are so many jobs available is an insufficient number of workers – it is imperative that the immigration process be made easier and faster.  The U.S. needs roughly 10 million people, including both low-wage and high-skilled workers, to fill job openings nationwide — and only 8.4 million Americans are actively seeking work.

Industries currently facing the worst labor shortages include construction; transportation and warehousing; accommodation and hospitality; and personal services businesses like salons, dry cleaners, repair services, and undertakers.  Unskilled immigrants are vital – especially for elder care (much of which is labor intensive), craft and construction work, landscaping and maintenance work, and service work in the hospitality and tourism sectors.

Some jobs may eventually disappear as a result of automation, such as taxi drivers, production line workers, and cashiers.  Yet skilled workers—whether with craft skills in carpentry, masonry, or plumbing; with advanced technical skills such as writing computer code or welding complex alloys; with human skills such as caring for the elderly, troubled youth, children, or those with disabilities; or with creative skills in the arts, literature, or basic science, not to mention the professions of law, medicine, teaching, and religious ministries—will remain essential to the growth and functioning of our economy.

Immigrants are willing to fill these jobs and go to wherever they are located.  While many immigrants prefer to settle in urban areas, many others come from rural, agrarian backgrounds and are familiar with many aspects of the work in those areas: farming, food production, and manufacturing.

High-skilled immigrants provide a range of long-lasting and material benefits to the U.S. economy, particularly through entrepreneurship and innovation.  Immigrants have higher rates of business ownership compared to native-born citizens.  50 of the 91 largest successful startups (55 percent) had at least one immigrant founder.  These immigrant-founded startups employ an average of more than 1,200 workers each and have a collective value of $248 billion.

Immigrants produce more patents, patent citations, and patent-derived economic value than native citizens.  Despite constituting just 16 percent of all inventors, they were responsible for 23 percent of patent production during the recent time period studied.  It is estimated that a 10 percent increase in the number of foreign graduate students would raise patent applications by 4.5 percent, university patent grants by 6.8 percent, and non-university patent grants by 5.0 percent.

Immigrants have generated 25 percent of the aggregated economic value created by patents produced by publicly traded firms.  This significant contribution equates to a 47 percent increase relative to their share of the inventor population working for publicly traded companies.

Demographers and economists have been warning that the aging baby-boomer population presents a serious challenge to the nation’s finances as the ratio of seniors to working-age adults – the age-dependency ratio – rises.  The reason is straightforward: Social Security and Medicare are largely financed on a pay-as-you-go basis necessitating some of the taxes paid by current workers to be transferred to current retirees.

The number of White people in the U.S. has been declining as deaths in the White population now outnumber births[4] in twenty-six states.  The fertility rate is the average number of babies born to mothers between the ages of fifteen and forty-four.  Merely to replace the existing population, the fertility rate needs to be about 2.1 percent.  During the baby-boomer years, it reached 3.7 percent – in 2021, it was just 1.6 percent.

Rather than being out of control as many conservatives claim, the total number of new migrants to the U.S. has been declining for the past several years.  No one proposes that undocumented immigrants be permitted to come to the U.S. and obtain preferential treatment, especially since they are ineligible for programs they frequently are alleged to be abusing.  Immigrants are frequently accused by conservatives of “stealing” a native American’s job, but if so, it’s because their employer is hiring illegally.  There are very few who opposed deporting undocumented immigrants who are here illegally but there definitely are far more humane ways to manage the problem than recently attempted (i.e., detaining children, splitting up families, ending DACA, etc.).  Additionally, two-thirds of undocumented immigrants have been living in the U.S. for more than 10 years many of whom live with their children who either are U.S. citizens or who no longer have any memory of another country.

A basic problem for immigrants, regardless of where they settle, is a lack of affordable housing.  Collectively, immigrants have added $3.7 trillion to U.S. housing wealth helping stabilize communities across the U.S. but securing adequate housing is a primary concern of newly arrived immigrants who often face discrimination, high costs, displacement, and lack of documents and credit history among other problems.  Low- and middle-income immigrants are far more likely than native-born Americans with similar incomes to live in overcrowded homes and spend at least half their income on housing.

To anyone unfamiliar with U.S. types of immigration, it might appear to be an incomprehensible labyrinth of different possibilities.  There are many types of U.S. visas[5] and other statuses that may provide residence or employment privileges and the rules vary substantially for each of them[6].

Employment Based Immigration

EB-1:     The EB-1 Visa is employment-based immigration for people who have an extraordinary ability, such as outstanding professors and researchers or multinational executives and managers.

EB-2:     The EB-2 Visa is available to individuals, family members, and business owners who are seeking permanent residency.

EB-3:     The EB-3 Visa is available to individuals, families, and businesses seeking permanent residence as a skilled worker, professional, or other worker (otherwise known as unskilled workers).

EB-4:     The EB-4 Visa is available to individuals, families, and for businesses seeking a foreign employee.  This visa facilitates permanent residency.

EB-5:     The EB-5 Visa is an employment-based immigrant visa for individuals, families, businesses, and investors seeking permanent residency.

U.S. Work Visas

H-1B:    (Specialty Occupations)  Those who are eligible for the H-1B, H-1B2, and H-1B3 Visas include individuals and families who wish to work temporarily in the U.S. or to business owners who want to hire a foreign individual who qualifies as someone with a specialty occupation, a Department of Defense worker, or a prominent fashion model.  Preference for an H-1B visa is given to individuals with graduate degrees.

H-2B:    (Temporary Non-Agricultural Workers)  The H-2B Visa, also known as a Work Permit, is for skilled and unskilled individuals coming to the U.S. for temporary employment that is non-agricultural.

TN:        (NAFTA Professionals)  The TN – NAFTA Visa is for Canadian and Mexican individuals, families, businesses, or investors seeking temporary residence for work.

L-1:       (Intracompany Transferee)  The L-1 Visa is employment-based available to eligible non-immigrant individuals, families, or businesses who are seeking temporary status through temporary employment.

E-1:       (Treaty Traders)  The E-1 Visa allows individuals or employees of companies to enter the U.S. in order to carry out international trade.

E-2:       (Treaty Investors)  The E-2 Visa is for owners and investors in businesses in the U.S.  This is a non-immigrant temporary U.S. work visa that may be granted for substantial investments in the U.S.

O-1:      (Extraordinary Ability)  The O-1 Visa is a temporary non-immigrant visa program for individuals or family members and business owners who possess extraordinary abilities.  Within the O-1 Visa category, applicants can apply for the O-1A (business and academics), O-1B (art), O-2 (support staff of O-1 Visa holders), or the O-3 (family of O-1 or O-2 Visa holders) Visa.

P-1:       (Worker Visa Category)  To qualify for the P-1 Visa in the U.S., the applicant must be an internationally recognized athlete or entertainer.  Because both athletes and entertainers are covered by this visa, the P-1 visa is broken down into two different P-1 Visas: P-1A (athletes) and P-1B (entertainers).  Individuals and family members who plan to visit the U.S. temporarily in order to compete or perform may qualify for either the P-1A or the P-1B visa.

R-1:       (Religious Workers)  The R-1 Visa is a temporary non-immigrant visa for religious workers working directly in religious work such as for a religious organization.

Family Based Immigration

Immediate Relative:  These Visa types are based on a close family relationship with a U.S. citizen described as an Immediate Relative (IR).

IR-1:      The spouse of a U.S. citizen.
IR-2:      An unmarried child under 21 years of age of a U.S. citizen.
IR-3:      An orphan adopted abroad by a U.S. citizen.
IR-4:      An orphan to be adopted in the U.S. by a U.S. citizen.
IR-5:   The parent of a U.S. citizen who is at least 21 years old.IR-1:      The spouse of a U.S. citizen.

Family Preference:  These Visa types are for more distant, family relationships with a U.S. citizen and some specified relationships with a Lawful Permanent Resident (LPR).

F1:         Unmarried sons and daughters of U.S. citizens and their minor children, if any.
F2:         Spouses, minor children, and unmarried sons and daughters (age 21 and over) of Lawful Permanent Residents.
F3:         Married sons and daughters of U.S. citizens and their spouses and minor children.
F4:         Brothers and sisters of U.S. citizens and their spouses and minor children provided the U.S. citizens are at least 21 years of age.
K-1:       The K-1 fiancé visa is a nonimmigrant visa (temporary visa) available to individuals or family members who wish to enter the U.S. with the intent of marrying a U.S. citizen.

Visitors

B-1:       The B-1 Visa is a visitor visa for individuals who intend to conduct business, attend conferences/conventions, or appear as a witness in court trials in the U.S.  Applicants are not permitted to perform productive work or accept employment.

B-2:       The B-2 Visa is for individuals who wish to travel in the U.S. for personal reasons such as tourism or to receive medical treatment.

To be eligible for the B-1 or B-2 visa, applicants must plan to remain in the U.S. for a limited and specified period of time, have sufficient funds to support their stay, and demonstrate sufficient ties to their home country.

J-1:        The J-1 Visa for the U.S. is an Exchange Visitor Program for scholars, professors, and exchange visitors who will participate in programs that promote cultural change.  It is a nonimmigrant visa for individuals or family members wishing to enter the U.S. on a temporary basis.

F-1:       The F-1 Visa is for international students studying in the U.S. at any level from elementary to university.

M-1:      The M-1-Visa is a nonimmigrant student visa granted to international students to enroll in vocational institutions in the U.S. to attend cooking classes, flight school, cosmetology, and other technical courses.

ESTA:    Rather than being an actual visa, ESTA (Electronic System for Travel Authorization) is a waiver allowing someone to visit the U.S. for any length of time shorter than 90 days without requiring a complete visa.

Permanent Settlement

Green Card:  A Green Card is a Permanent Resident Card that serves as an identification card (ID).  Having a Green Card allows the holder to live and work permanently in the U.S.

An insufficient number of immigrants are being admitted to meet current needs and admissions should be significantly increased[7].  Pro-growth immigration reform is an economic imperative.  As such, U.S. immigration policy should be shifted from an emphasis on family reunification to one that is employment-based.  There are numerous immigration reforms that should be immediately enacted including the following recommendations.

Green cards should be allocated to individuals with significant potential to benefit the U.S.  Eliminating the 7 percent quota would more closely align the supply of green cards to demand and make it easier for skilled immigrants to enter the U.S.  All per-country caps should be eliminated.

Prospective employers willing to sponsor workers should be encouraged to directly coordinate with U.S. Customs and Border Protection, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to recruit prospective employees at border crossings.

A visa should be provided to any immigrant entrepreneurs able to demonstrate a sufficient level of external and documented funding for their proposed ventures.

The U.S. should provide visas for high-value workers obtaining an advanced degree from fully accredited U.S. universities, especially in high demand subject areas such in a STEM or medical field, and willing to remain in the U.S. for as long as they remain employed in their degree field.  Funding for basic research should be increased providing greater opportunities for additional numbers of student immigrants.  Many of the most valuable immigrants are those who come to the U.S. and gain skills here as either college students or as children of immigrants who then attend school.  Most currently come from India and Africa.

The entire annual quota of H1-B visas for highly skilled immigrants is expended on the first day they become available.  The number of such visas should be sufficiently increased to meet current demands.

One of the only existing visa programs designed to bring in low-wage workers is the H-2B program which allows employers to hire seasonal workers in industries ranging from tourism to fishing.  Rather than requiring a new visa when changing employment, visas should be portable between jobs.  The program is currently capped at 66,000 temporary foreign workers a year, though agricultural workers are exempt from that cap.  The Department of Homeland Security is permitted to increase that allotment by up to 64,000 additional visas annually without any act of Congress.

The U.S. remains the most appealing destination for immigrants.  People move to the U.S. today for the same reasons as in the past: to join their families, to work, and to seek safety and refuge from war, violence, and natural disasters.  Admitting substantial numbers of immigrants is mutually beneficial to both them and the U.S.

The U.S. in the mid-20^th century, and even up until 15-20 years ago, was totally unrivaled in attracting global talent but there have been a number of factors over the last couple of decades that have started to erode that advantage.  Some countries have become much more economically developed during this period making it more appealing for a migrant to possibly return home after having completed their academic studies.

It is immigrants that have made the U.S. what it is today and they are needed to maintain and improve future economic growth.  More than ever, the U.S. needs the brightest, most talented, and hardest-working people the world has to offer.

That’s what I think, what about you?

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[1] James Madison Jr. was a U.S. statesman, diplomat, and Founding Father who served as the fourth U.S. President.  He is hailed as the “Father of the Constitution” for his pivotal role in drafting and promoting the Constitution of the United States and the Bill of Rights.

[2] Mollenkamp, Daniel Thomas.  How Immigration Affects The Economy, Investopedia, https://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0809/3-ways-immigration-helps-and-hurts-the-economy.aspx, 30 September 2021.

[3] International Rescue Committee (IRC), https://ircorg.com/, 2022.

[4] Sáenz, Rogelio, and Kenneth M. Johnson.  White Deaths Exceed Births In A Majority Of U.S. States, Applied Population Lab, University of Wisconsin, https://apl.wisc.edu/data-briefs/natural-decrease-18.

[5] U.S. Work Visa Types For Foreign Nationals, CitizenPath, https://citizenpath.com/us-work-visa-types/

[6] US Visa Guide, MyVisaSource, https://www.myvisasource.com/usa-immigration/ 2022.

[7] Collins, Laura, and Matthew Denhart.  Policy Recommendations:  Modernizing Immigration For Today’s Realities, George W. Bush Presidential Center, https://www.bushcenter.org/publications/articles/2019/policy-recommendations/immigration.html, 26 November 2018.

Moving Outward

It seems to me….

“… And when he (man) has conquered all the deeps of space and all the mysteries of time, still he will be beginning.  And if we’re no more than animals we must snatch each little scrap of happiness and live and suffer and pass, mattering no more than all the other animals do or have done.  It is this or that: all the universe or nothing… Which shall it be?”  ~ H.G. Wells[1] from the Science Fiction Film Things to Come.

 Over a half century ago, man embarked on the most ambitious exploratory undertaking ever attempted.  From that initial small step onto the surface of a body other than Earth, the entire universe became the next great challenge into which to expand.  Man has never before hesitated to venture forth into the unknown and, regardless of possible delays, hazards, or costs, space will be no different.  The urge to explore where no one has gone before is too strong in our species for it to be otherwise.

Astronauts have returned home from space and described what is called the “Overview Effect”: the change that occurs when they see the world from above, as a place where borders are invisible, where human strife is nowhere to be seen.  The blue and green Earth appears alive.  The atmosphere reveals itself to be what it is: an impossibly thin onion skin that protects us from the killing void of space and yet appears penetrable, destructible[2].  How much better the world would be if all its leaders could share that experience.  Perhaps colonizing other worlds will help humanity mature beyond warring within itself.

Unfortunately, as if space was not sufficiently hazardous in itself, we foolishly increase that risk by creating a growing belt of lethal debris in near-space through which every orbital launch must navigate.  Ever since the Soviet Union launched Sputnik in 1957, spacefaring nations and private companies have been firing an increasingly greater number of payloads into orbit inadvertently resulting in a correspondingly greater accumulation of spent rocket stages, functioning and defunct satellites, and swarms of bolts, scraps, paint chips, and other small but high-velocity ordnance orbiting Earth.

NASA estimated in 2021 there were at least 26,000 pieces of orbiting junk the size of a softball or larger that could destroy a satellite or crewed spacecraft on impact.  There also were more than 500,000 objects the size of a marble that could cause severe damage to any object they strike and 100 million the size of a grain of salt that could puncture a spacesuit like a bullet.

As we gain experience and become more ambitious, these types of threats will continue to proliferate as private companies like SpaceX launch constellations of thousands of small satellites intended to improve broadband communications coverage on Earth.  Cleaning up the mess — somehow sweeping the debris from orbit — exceeds our current technological ability.

Near-Earth orbital capabilities have steadily improved to where they now are considered relatively routine – the time has come to take the next logical step.  Extended duration stays on the International Space Station (ISS) have proven the viability of living in a non-Earth environment.  While distances are greater, creation of the first permanently manned outpost on the Moon will be both more difficult but having both gravity and an actual surface, more easily accomplished than building the ISS.

The Lunar Gateway is envisioned to be a station in lunar orbit that can serve as a communications hub, temporary habitation module, and holding area for rovers and other robots intended for outposts on the lunar surface.  The integrated Power and Propulsion Element (PPE) and Habitation and Logistics Outpost (HALO) will be the Gateway’s foundation providing support for humanity’s first permanent outpost in orbit around the Moon.

The NASA surface habitat, named Artemis Base Camp, is intended to provide a long-term foothold for lunar exploration.  The facility would also require infrastructure for power, waste disposal, and communications as well as radiation shielding and a landing pad.  Hopefully, neither NASA nor commercial enterprises will attempt to overstudy the lunar surface prior to establishing a permanently manned operational base.

While a range of proposals for missions of lunar colonization, exploitation, or permanent exploration have been prepared, current projections for establishing a permanent crewed presence on the Moon are not for colonizing but rather focus only on building lunar bases intended for scientific exploration and, to a lesser extent, exploitation of lunar resources.  Establishing a colony on the Moon would require different stages of development prior to when a permanent settlement could be established.  For long-term sustainability, a space colony must be close to self-sufficient and not all essential capabilities have yet been developed.

The lunar soil (regolith) contains an abundance of natural resources including iron, aluminum, silicon, titanium, oxygen, and small amounts of carbon, helium 3, and nitrogen.  That should be sufficient for a lunar settlement to eventually become self-sufficient after extraction and mining techniques are sufficiently developed.  Mining and refining the Moon’s materials on-site – for use both on the Moon and elsewhere in the Solar System – could provide an advantage over deliveries from Earth, as they can be launched into space at a much lower energy cost than from Earth.  It is possible that large quantities of cargo would need to be launched into space for any attempted interplanetary exploration and the lower cost of providing goods from the Moon would be beneficial.

Eventually, the Moon will likely play an important role in supplying space-based construction facilities with raw materials.  Experience gained from developing lunar self-sustainability will be critical when building a similar capability on Mars.

NASA’s planned human missions to the Moon sometime in the 2020s, followed by human missions to Mars in the mid-2030s, are some of the few initiatives that have strong bipartisan Congressional support.  A U.S. led mission to Mars could be the greatest international peacetime partnership in history.  For multiple decades, sending humans to Mars has been a distant goal — typically predicted to always be approximately 20 years (or even more) in the future.

There are those who ask “Why the rush?” when advocating a timeline for Mars.  The question should rather be “Why the delays?”  The goal of sending humans to Mars has been the “horizon goal” of the U.S. for well over 50 years.  If we hope to ever set foot on the surface of Mars, we need to set ambitious yet attainable goals that will sustain momentum, excite the nation and the world, and stimulate innovation and inspiration in these challenging times.

If something were to go wrong, it is possible to return to Earth from the Moon relatively quickly – in only three days.  It would take anywhere from between 150 to 300 days to get back to Earth from Mars, depending on the position of the Martian orbit relative to Earth.  The time delay from Earth for communications to someone on the Moon is 1.25 seconds; on Mars, it’s anywhere between 4 and 24 minutes.  We need to learn how to live on the Moon before taking the logical next step to multi-planet status.

The most expensive, difficult, and limiting part of space travel is the effort it takes to climb out of Earth’s gravity well accurately aimed toward the intended target.  Rocket engineers refer to necessary change in velocity as “Delta-V”, and that value is much less from the Moon than from Earth.  It is why the Apollo program needed the most powerful rocket ever built, the Saturn V, to get to the Moon from Earth, but only a much smaller rocket was needed to get off the Moon and then back to Earth.

Any crewed mission to Mars will have to be preceded by multiple scouting and setup missions, and the sustained buildup of resources will require numerous additional missions.  There is no space-based economy and there won’t be one for decades.  It will be more feasible and less costly to build as much of what will be needed on the Moon and take it to Mars rather than directly all the way from Earth.

Similar to on the Moon, the first NASA astronauts to set foot on Mars will only establish a research-and-operations base, not a permanently inhabited colony.  The first permanent Mars colony will occur only following initial scientific exploration.  Colonization will require establishment of permanent habitats that have the potential for self-expansion and self-sustainability.

The probability of Mars ever becoming a future haven for the rich seeking to escape a fouled Earth is highly doubtful.  Mars will be inhospitable well into the foreseeable future.  There will always be areas here on Earth where the wealthy can dwell in relative isolation from those less privileged that would be paradisiacal in comparison.

Still, it is imperative for our planet and life as we know it that self-sustaining off-planet colonies be established prior to the end of this century.  Human culture is closely associated with the demise of many large species of animals – one of the next so threatened will very likely be us.  Off planet colonies also ensure our own survival against stupidity and cosmic accidents.  By spreading our ecosystem and civilization to other worlds we increase the possibility mankind will live to explore the stars, unlike the dinosaurs who vanished after surviving for 160 million years when an asteroid hit the Earth 65 million years ago.

Following establishment of a permanent colony on Mars, it is highly probable that the next step of expansion into space will be construction of space-based habitats people, plants, and animals can share.  These habitats would orbit the Earth similar to the ISS but also around the Moon, Mars, Venus, and other planets or probably even the Sun.

If we can build a space habitat that recycles its air, water, and food, only basic resources would be needed to construct such habitats requiring just minor advances in technology beyond what exists today.  Each habitat would become a self-sustaining small world habitable for thousands of years or until ready to terraform and populate other new planets.  By then we might know how to travel to other star systems.

The observable universe extends out 29 billion light years.  Recent research has confirmed that liquid water occurs much more commonly than originally thought.  Even within our own solar system, recent observations of the dwarf planet Ceres indicate the possibility of liquid water.  While liquid water does not necessarily correlate to life, it is considered essential for life as we currently know it.

A fundamental problem for ever reaching another star system is the combination of distances and maximum theoretically attainable velocities.  The Alpha Centauri star system is our closest neighbor at a distance of “only” 4.3 light years.  At a speed of about 40,000 km/h (25,000 mph), it would take approximately 114,500 Earth years to get there.

There have been relatively few advances in space propulsion systems since the 1960s.  Other than for several interesting but limited trials, such as “light sails” propelled by lasers in low-Earth orbit and theoretical experiments such as MEGA – a Mach-effect gravity assisted drive, none would ever be able to propel a large spaceship with sufficient velocity to reach another star system within a reasonable time frame.  To do so will require major scientific breakthroughs in understanding the basic physical concepts of both gravity and space-time.

It is inevitable that at some time in the near future, it will be verified that we are not alone – that other advanced civilizations share this universe.  It is generally accepted that while not totally accurate, the Drake Equation’s estimate of the number of advanced communicating civilizations in our galaxy is basically correct in that other intelligent life is out there.  Beyond the issue of basic equation parameter values, the most pointed criticisms of the Drake Equation tend to emphasize the dichotomy, known as the Fermi Paradox, as initially put forth by physicist Enrico Fermi, between the high probability that extraterrestrial intelligence exists and the fact that no evidence confirming it has ever been found.  If other alien intelligent life exists, why has it never been detected?

The Search for Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence (SETI) is the designation of a series of projects attempting to detect evidence of technologically advanced civilizations that exist elsewhere in the universe.  Most attempts to confirm such intelligence are dependent on reception of electromagnetic signals originating in outer space.

A weakness of such methods is that it is highly probable that electromagnetic wave detectability is most likely not the pinnacle of technological advancement but only a brief intermediate phase where civilizations such as ours leak signals for a century or two prior to progressing to more sophisticated methods of communication.  In terms of why we have not been able to find proof of aliens, this is a convenient (and far more preferrable) alternative than the assumption that intelligence is not conducive to long-term survival.  Any intelligent life detectable by our methods of communications would most probably be only a small subset of life in the universe.  Still, it is also significantly louder than signals emanating from basic biology – so, though detection might be improbable, why not continue to listen for it?

Some day we will reach for the stars – if they have not already reached us.  It is only then that the real history of our species will begin.

That’s what I think, what about you?

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[1] Herbert George Wells was an English writer prolific in many genres.  He wrote dozens of novels, short stories, and works of social commentary, history, satire, biography, and autobiography.

[2] Kluger,Jeffrey.  The ‘Overview Effect’ Forever Changes Some Astronauts’ Attitudes Towards Earth — But You Don’t Need To Go To Space To Experience It, Time, https://time.com/6084094/overview-effect/, 30 July 2021.

Our Failing Infrastructure

It seems to me….

“Infrastructure development is economic development.”  ~ Kay Ivey[1].

When infrastructure works, most people never think about it.  The problem in the U.S. today is exactly that – it has been much too long since most people have thought about it.  The U.S. is the wealthiest nation in the world, yet it ranks 13^th when it comes to the overall quality of its infrastructure[2].  After decades of disinvestment, roads, bridges, and water systems are crumbling.  The electric grid is vulnerable to catastrophic outages.  Too many lack access to affordable, high-speed Internet and quality housing.  And these are only some of the problems.

U.S. infrastructure is both dangerously overstretched and lags behind most of its economic competitors, especially China.  When ranked among 141 other nations on measures of a dozen factors such as quality of government institutions, labor markets, healthcare, and infrastructure, the U.S. ranked second behind Singapore but fell well behind in transportation and utility infrastructure[3].

The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE)[4] reported in their quadrennial 2017 report that U.S. infrastructure received a “D+”; that grade only slightly improved to a “C-” in 2021.  There currently is an estimated $2.2 trillion 10-year investment gap across all levels of government and the private sector.  While the U.S. was ranked 13^th overall, railroads were 48^th.  Its water and electricity utility infrastructure was ranked 23^rd, and its transition to renewable energy was 24^th.

Annual public investment in transportation and water infrastructure as a share of total GDP has been declining since the 1950s with only one-half percent of total GDP allocated as of 2018.  Current systems are antiquated and rising costs associated with increased delays and maintenance hinder U.S. economic development and competitive advantage.

There are over 4 million miles of public roadways in the U.S.  Roads are critical for moving an ever-increasing number of people and goods but these vital lifelines are frequently underfunded and over 43 percent of the system is now considered to be in poor or mediocre condition.  While the interstate system tends to be in mostly good condition, the majority of roads considered to be in an unacceptable condition tend to be on urban and rural collectors and the non-interstate system.  Some projects, such as adding guardrails and widening lanes, could make it safer to drive on rural, non-interstate roads which account for a disproportionately high number of the country’s traffic deaths.  The U.S. has been underfunding its roadway system for years resulting in a $786 billion backlog of needed investment.  The bulk of the backlog of $435 billion is for repairing existing roads, $120 billion for system expansion, and $105 billion for system enhancement which includes safety enhancements, operational improvements, and environmental projects.

There are numerous unsafe bridges with a history of bottlenecks and crashes that are still in use decades after the end of their projected life spans and have been listed as “functionally obsolete” since the 1990s in the federal bridge inventory.  Many bridges in rural areas vital to a community’s ability to function have been closed because of their age or dilapidation.  79 percent of the nation’s bridges are rated as poor or structurally unsound.  An estimated $125 billion is currently needed for bridge repair.

The U.S. aviation infrastructure includes airports, air traffic controls, and aircraft.  More people travel by air in the U.S. than on any other nation’s system but it ranks behind other major industrialized states in performance.  Its airports perform poorly in international rankings, and no U.S. airline rates among the top performing global carriers.  Passenger air travel has steadily increased from 964.7 million to 1.2 billion per year, yet flight service only increased from 9.7 to 10.2 million flights per year contributing in part to a total of nearly 96 million delay minutes for airline passengers in 2019.  While the Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) spends over $7 billion annually on aviation traffic control operations and over $1.2 billion in developing and enforcing new safety standards and aircraft certifications, the U.S. civil aviation industry estimates that U.S. airports currently require more than $115 billion in maintenance and repairs over the next five years.

The U.S. rail network is divided into two categories: freight rail and passenger rail.  Despite freight and passenger rail being part of an integrated system, there remain stark differences in the challenges faced by the two rail categories.  U.S. passenger trains average only half the speed of European high-speed railways.  Passenger railways are dependent on government investment but have been plagued by a lack of federal support leading to a current repair backlog estimated at $45.2 billion.  Most nations are now developing high-speed passenger rail systems able to travel in excess of 250 km/h (155 mph); China currently operates more than 9,600 high-speed trains per day over 40,000 kilometers (25,000 miles) of track.  The U.S. does not have any operational high-speed rail lines.

Public transit is essential to everyday living in communities across the country, providing access to jobs, schools, shopping, healthcare, and other services while enabling equitable access and sustainable mobility options.  Unfortunately, 45 percent of Americans have no access to a transit system.  Most of the existing systems are aging and transit agencies often lack sufficient funds to keep their systems in good working order.  Over a 10-year period across the country, 19 percent of transit vehicles, and 6 percent of fixed guideway elements like tracks and tunnels were rated as being in “poor” condition.  There currently is an estimated $176 billion transit investment backlog which is anticipated to increase to nearly $500 billion by 2039.

A seaport is a logistic and industrial node in global supply chains with a strong maritime character and a functional and spatial clustering of activities directly or indirectly linked to transportation cargo handling, logistics, distribution, industry, and other maritime services.   Seaports in the U.S. are often located in or adjacent to large coastal metropolitan areas, whereas inland ports are located on the Great Lakes or the inland waterway network and are frequently in more rural areas.  The nation’s more than 300 coastal and inland ports are significant drivers of the U.S. economy but as became very apparent during the recent COVID pandemic, recent supply chain disruptions and delays illustrated their inability to cope with developing demands.  There is an estimated funding gap of over $12 billion for waterside infrastructure such as dredging over the next 10 years with additional billions needed for landside infrastructure.

The U.S. freight network’s “water highway” is comprised of approximately 12,000 miles of inland navigation channels as well as an additional 11,000 miles of intracoastal waterways.  Inland waterway infrastructure includes locks and dams as well as navigation channels which helps move agricultural exports and relieves strain on other transportation modes.  One barge can move as much tonnage as 70 tractor-trailers.  The Eire Canal, Chesapeake and Ohio Canal, and other major waterways constructed mostly in the 19^th century transported coal, lumber, and agricultural products to markets but today are primarily only used for recreation.  Recent boosts in federal investment and an increase in user fees have begun to reverse decades of declining lock and dam conditions but the system still reports a $6.8 billion backlog in construction projects and ongoing lock closures.

The average age of dams in the U.S.is 57 years and by 2030, seven out of 10 dams will be over 50 years old.  The ASCE gave dams a grade of “D”.  As of 2021, there were approximately 88,600 dams, most of which are owned by private businesses, citizens, and state and local governments – over 4,400 of which are considered to be unsafe.  Federal agencies own only about 4 percent of the dams in the U.S.  The Association of State Dam Safety Officials (ASDSO) estimated the total cost of rehabilitating just the non-federal dams in the U.S. to be $75.69 billion[5].

There are nearly 40,000 miles of levees across the U.S.  The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) estimates that $21 billion is needed to improve and maintain the moderate to high-risk levees, about 15 percent of the known levees in the U.S.  Earthen embankments make up 97 percent of all levees, while the remaining 3 percent are concrete, rock, and steel floodwalls.  The nation’s levees are, on average, 50 years old, and many were built using engineering standards less rigorous than what are considered to be today’s best practices.

Our nation’s drinking water infrastructure system has over 2.2 million miles of underground pipes that deliver supposedly safe, reliable water to millions of people.  Funding for drinking water infrastructure has not kept pace with the growing need to address aging infrastructure systems and funding sources are not meeting current needs.  The annual drinking water and wastewater investment gap will grow to $434 billion by 2029.  Additionally, the cost to comply with the EPA’s 2019 Lead and Copper Rule is estimated at between $130 million and $286 million.

Wastewater infrastructure includes a network of sewer pipes that collect and carry household, business, and industrial effluents to wastewater treatment systems.  The majority of sewer and water systems are aged and decaying and climate changes threaten to further worsen current vulnerabilities and expose new ones.  The nation’s more than 16,000 wastewater treatment plants are functioning, on average, at 81 percent of their design capacities while 15 percent have reached or exceeded it.  An estimated $180 billion is needed to upgrade existing wastewater plants to an acceptable operational level.

School facilities represent the second largest sector of public infrastructure spending, after highways, and yet there is no comprehensive national data source on K-12 public school infrastructure.  What data is available indicates that 53 percent of public-school districts report the need to update or replace multiple building systems including HVAC systems.  More than one-third of public schools have portable buildings due to capacity constraints with 45 percent of these portable buildings considered as being in poor or fair condition.  It is estimated that K-12 public schools in the U.S. are underfunding by nearly $150 billion annually[6].

Despite their increased popularity, investment in parks is lagging resulting in deteriorating bridges, trails, parking areas, restrooms, drinking water systems, and more.  State parks and local parks face a $5.6 billion current and $60 billion deferred maintenance backlog.  The National Park Service’s deferred maintenance backlog grew over 9 percent in the last decade with more than half of all park assets in need of repair.

The U.S. power distribution infrastructure reliability is an increasing problem with 92 percent of all outages occur along existing segments.  In coming years, additional transmission and distribution infrastructure, smart planning, and improved reliability will be needed to accommodate a changing energy landscape as delivery becomes more distributed and reliance on renewables increases.  To meet the latest state-driven Renewable Portfolio Standards in generation infrastructure, the projected funding gap is anticipated to grow to a cumulative $197 billion by 2029.

Broadband wired or wireless data streaming (Internet) providers are unable to deliver adequate system access to a high number of users at speeds of at least 25 megabits per second downstream, 3 megabits per second upstream, which is considered the minimum acceptable data rate for most applications.  The coronavirus pandemic forced millions of Americans to stay home in 2020 and 2021 but they and an estimated one in five school-aged children lacked the high-speed Internet connection needed to access lessons and other materials.  Lack of infrastructure to deliver fast and reliable Internet (broadband) has deepened inequities between lower and higher-income communities; a 2020 Federal Communications Report[7] found that about 18 million Americans, who primarily live in rural and lower income areas, do not have access to any broadband network.  Infrastructure projects in these areas would provide greater employment opportunities and improve overall productivity.  It is estimated that it would cost about $80 billion[8] to provide acceptable broadband service to all Americans although that is likely to not be sufficient to cover long-term operating costs in hard-to-reach areas.

The U.S. is poorly prepared to counter threats to its infrastructure and needs to develop protection, resilience, and recovery in its existing systems.  There are three primary categories of threats to critical infrastructures:  Natural (earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions…).  Extreme weather (hurricanes, floods, draughts, fires…).  Human-caused (terrorism, rioting, product tampering, explosions and bombings…).  The effects of climate change will impact essentially all aspects of infrastructure.  Other examples of highly critical areas in need of improvement include port security and capacity expansion.  There currently isn’t any estimate of how much it would cost to bring these systems up to an acceptable level.

The contorted path that infrastructure development projects face in the U.S. to obtain state and federal funding – impact statements, environmental reviews, public hearings, and financing approvals – can often take months or even years to finalize.  Leaders in both parties have long considered our weak and decaying infrastructure as a possible unifying issue as everyone is confronted by similar issues.  Unfortunately, neither party is willing to allow the other to take credit for such improvement and consequently oppose each other’s proposals.  Additionally, while conservatives favor infrastructure improvement, they normally are reluctant to allocate sufficient funding for it.

President Biden proposed an ambitious $2 trillion American Jobs Plan that included an infrastructure element that would have invested significant funding into improving the nation’s bridges, roads, public transportation, railways, ports, and airports but the plan faced opposition from Republicans and business groups who objected to both the cost and the higher corporate taxes proposed to pay for it.  Though it was intended to be an investment that would create millions of jobs, rebuild the nation’s infrastructure, and position the U.S. to out-compete its rivals, the Senate shortsightedly failed to approve it.

Congress did finally approve what was termed a $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill in November 2021 providing Biden with a measure of success though only $550 million was actually targeted for roads, bridges, mass transit, rail, airports, ports, and waterways over 5 years – just slightly over one million a year; not nearly sufficient to bring our infrastructure up to even minimum standards.

The package also included a $65 billion investment in improving the nation’s broadband infrastructure and invests tens of billions of dollars in improving the electric grid and water systems.  Another $7.5 billion would go to building a nationwide network of plug-in electric vehicle chargers.

It should be readily apparent that all currently approved funding allocation is totally inadequate.  Based on these estimates, over $2.3 trillion is needed just to remedy current deficiencies and does not include recommended or beneficial upgrades.  Without immediate adequate repair, the amount needed is anticipated to continue increasing every year.  It is difficult to see how the deficiencies identified can ever be remedied as Congress is reluctant to approve adequate funding for infrastructure maintenance.  To be fair, a substantial portion of the identified infrastructure deficiencies are the responsibility of states rather than the federal government but it is equally unlikely states will adequately fund infrastructure deficiencies.

Much of the reluctance to fund critical infrastructure projects is the result of a faulty conservative economic ideological belief that low taxes are of general benefit to the national economy.  While there is an element of fact in their belief, economists have repeatedly shown there also is a minimum investment in the factors of productivity necessary to sustain economic robustness and growth.

Congress’ normal approach to dealing with problems is to “kick the can down the road”.  This always results in the cost to rectify increasingly critical infrastructure problems continuing to escalate.  It is always less expensive to continually make small repairs rather than allowing them to accumulate until they have reached an unaffordable amount.  Unfortunately, Congress always wants to take credit for infrastructure development but never appropriates funding for its maintenance.  It is unfortunately very likely that all aspects of the U.S. infrastructure will continue to deteriorate in the future.

That’s what I think, what about you?

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[1] Kay Ellen Ivey is a U.S. politician who served as the 54^th governor of Alabama.

[2] The White House.  Fact Sheet: The American Jobs Plan, White House Briefing Room, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/03/31/fact-sheet-the-american-jobs-plan/, 31 March 2021.

[3] Duncan, Ian.  Here’s How U.S. Infrastructure Compares To The Rest Of The World, The Washington Post, Uhttps://www.washingtonpost.com/transportation/2021/04/30/us-infrastructure-ranking/, 30 April 2021.

[4] America’s Infrastructure Scores A C-, American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), https://infrastructurereportcard.org/, 2022.  A considerable portion of this document is based on material contained in this ASCE report.

[5] The Cost Of Rehabilitating Our Nation’s Dams, Association of State Dam Safety Officials (ASDSO), https://damsafety-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/files/Cost%20of%20Rehab%20Report-2022%20FINAL.pdf, March 2022,

[6] TCF Study Finds U.S. Schools Underfunded By Nearly $150 Billion Annually, The Century Foundation, https://tcf.org/content/about-tcf/tcf-study-finds-u-s-schools-underfunded-nearly-150-billion-annually/, 22 July 2020.

[7] 2020 Federal Communications Report, Federal Communications Commission (FCC), https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/FCC-20-50A1.pdf, 20 April 2020.

[8] Campbell, Sophia, Jimena Ruiz Castro, and David Wessel.  The Benefits And Costs Of Broadband Expansion, Brookings, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2021/08/18/the-benefits-and-costs-of-broadband-expansion/, 18 August 2021.

Increasing Challenges

It seems to me….

“We are all living together on a single planet, which is threatened by our own actions.  And if you don’t have some kind of global cooperation, nationalism is just not on the right level to tackle the problems, whether it’s climate change or whether it’s technological disruption.”  ~ Yuval Noah Harari[1].

The world is becoming an increasingly dangerous place.  That might be merely a perception following being somewhat historically isolated from what might be more common occurrences elsewhere – now, the world continues to become smaller every year due to better communications and reporting.  In the West, a Cold War victory had convinced many that a new democratic world order would keep the peace — without realizing how fragile that peace really was.  People had hoped we had transformed international politics – we had not.  That has unfortunately become all too apparent but where it might lead remains unknown.

But how did we get here and what does it portend for the future?  If I even pretended to know, to actually answer that question, even partially, would entail multiple books.  My prophetic abilities are inadequate to ever contemplate undertaking such a task.

The effects of climate change, Russia’s war in Ukraine, deteriorating relations with China, global inflation, and numerous other challenges increasingly confront us.  Even what most of us in the U.S. considered our basic foundation of stability – our democratic form of government – has now been shown to be under internal attack from neofascist conservative extremists.

That, unfortunately, is true not only here in the U.S.  It is somewhat incomprehensible that over half (54 percent) of the citizens living in democracies think their voices either rarely or never matter in politics in comparison to only 46 percent in non-democracies.  Of the ten countries that perform the worst on ‘political voice’, nine are democracies according to the Democracy Perception Index[2] created by Germany-based Dalia Research and Rasmussen Global.

A 2017 survey involving 20,185 people in 20 different countries ranked 50 countries judging their perceptions of nations based on six categories: culture, exports, governance, immigration-investment, people, and tourism[3].  Germany was the country best perceived internationally.  Rounding out the top five countries were France, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Japan.  The U.S. was sixth, scoring highly for culture and exports, but falling from 19^th to 23^rd under Trump on perceptions of governance.  A somewhat similar fall in global perception of the U.S. was in 2005 following the re-election of George W. Bush when it fell to seventh place.  These were the only previous times when the U.S. stayed outside the top ranking for longer than one year.

Surveys[4] found higher international ratings regarding global publics under Obama throughout his two terms in office than for his predecessor, George W. Bush[5].  The largely successful foreign policy of the Obama administration was constantly criticized in the U.S. by right-wing extremists for having wisely refrained from exercising the military option they routinely advocated.  There admittedly were significant failures; e.g., drawing a “red line” and not reacting when it was crossed; but the U.S.’s international favorability rating significantly improved under Obama.  It is unfortunate that trend was once again reversed under Trump.  Other countries now have a much more positive perception of the U.S. that Joe Biden is in office according to a Pew Research Center poll which shows international opinion has rebounded significantly from the historic lows it hit under Donald Trump.

Despite a generally favorable view, countries surveyed did not express great confidence in the U.S. as an ally and have begun to realize that maybe they cannot actually any longer count on the U.S.  A median of 56 percent of the 16 countries polled said the U.S. is “somewhat” reliable, while just 11 percent deemed it “very reliable”.  One poll[6] found that only 14 percent of Germans consider the U.S. a reliable partner compared to 36 percent for Russia and 43 percent for China (though that has most likely changed significantly following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine).  Other countries also had somewhat similar divided views on the U.S.’ domestic policies and functioning of its political system.

The multilateral trading system has been under pressure for some time from deep structural changes in the global economy, namely the rise of China, the shift to a digital economy, and the economic and political disruption those two changes have wrought.  Laissez-faire trade and globalization in general are under fire in the U.S. as well as in Europe and any number of developing countries.

About half or more in all 15 nations where the question was asked said they had supported U.S.-led military actions against ISIS in Iraq and Syria.  European attitudes toward President Barack Obama had remained very positive throughout his term in office.  Across the 10 EU nations polled, a median of 77 percent expressed confidence in Obama to do the right thing in world affairs including more than eight-in-ten in Sweden, the Netherlands, Germany, and France.  Negatively, half or more of those surveyed in 10 countries think Americans are arrogant and many said they are greedy.

Throughout Donald Trump’s Presidency, publics around the world held the U.S. in low regard, with most opposing his foreign policies.  This was especially true among key U.S. allies and partners.  Now, a new survey[7] of 16 publics finds a significant uptick in ratings for the U.S. with strong support for Biden and several of his major policy initiatives.

This is also indicated by apparent widespread confidence in Biden which contrasts starkly with views of his predecessor.  Trust in the U.S. President was historically low in most countries surveyed during Trump’s Presidency.  In many cases, however, the share who have confidence in Biden is not as high as the share who had confidence in Obama at either the start or end of his Presidency.

As a result of declining oil prices upon which the Russian economy is dependent and sanctions imposed by western nations following its invasion of Ukraine, the Russian currency, savings, and stock market has declined by over 40 percent possibly leading to eventual economic and political instability.  President Putin however continues to blame western governments, especially the U.S., rather than accepting any personal responsibility, something apparently widely accepted by a majority of Russians.

Russia has found a way to assert itself geopolitically, despite its economic weakness by effectively using what strength it has, such as its weakened but still-formidable military and intelligence services as well as its veto in the UN Security Council.  Most ambitiously and devastatingly, it has found a way to leverage its strength dramatically using cyberwarfare.

Russia began using its power in cyberspace years ago initially with operations within Russia itself, then in Georgia, Ukraine, Poland, Germany, and other European countries and, finally, in the U.S. during the 2016 Presidential campaign.  In each case, Moscow directed a full-spectrum strategy, including hacking, trolling, fake news, and counterintelligence aimed at discrediting targeted politicians, interfering with campaigns, and tilting elections.  These efforts have sometimes been used in conjunction with more traditional military force as in Ukraine and Georgia.

Western analysts continue to wonder what Russian President Vladimir Putin really wants.  To some, he seeks the resurrection of imperial Russia or the USSR; others believe he merely wants Russian interests accommodated.  Which is correct could significantly influence the eventual outcome of the Ukrainian conflict.

The core element of his doctrine is apparently to get the West to treat Russia as if it were the Soviet Union, a power to be respected and feared, with special rights in its neighborhood and a voice in every serious international matter.  The doctrine holds that only a few states should have this kind of authority, along with complete sovereignty, and that others must bow to their wishes.  It entails defending incumbent authoritarian regimes and undermining democracies.  And the doctrine is tied together by Putin’s overarching aim: reversing the consequences of the Soviet collapse, splitting the transatlantic alliance, and renegotiating the geographic settlement that ended the Cold War.

The need to address global challenges has become urgent but those challenges seem only to continue increasing:  reversing climate change, reducing economic and social inequality, improving healthcare, providing adequate food and water, caring for refugees, attaining peace and security, firearm reduction….  The list is long, and when people lose hope, many turn to extremism.

Even a superficial look at the news headlines exemplifies problem after problem in the form of wars, violence, murders, theft, scandals, abuse of power, resource misuse….  Innovative technological breakthroughs such as electricity, the Internet, computers, and cellphones have helped to alleviate many such issues in the past but will likely not be sufficient for the most critical problems we currently face.

Unfortunately, the ideological divide in the U.S. separating the two major political parties prevents them from cooperating to lessen even minor challenges much less major ones.  Now is a time when everyone – across all political sectors – needs to come together and strive to move forward to a strong and brighter future.

That’s what I think, what about you?

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[1] Yuval Noah Harari is an Israeli public intellectual, historian, and professor in the Department of History at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.

[2] Democracy Perception Index 2022, Alliance of Democracies, https://www.allianceofdemocracies.org/initiatives/the-copenhagen-democracy-summit/dpi-2022/, 30 May 2022.

[3] Anholt, Simon.  Germany Reclaims Top “Nation Brand” Ranking, with USA Dropping To Sixth Place, Anholt-GfK Nation Brands Index, http://www.gfk.com/insights/press-release/germany-reclaims-top-nation-brand-ranking-with-usa-dropping-to-sixth-place/?utm_source=Fareed%27s+Global+Briefing&utm_campaign=b5031b3305-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_11_17&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_6f2e93382a-b5031b3305-85658801, 16 November 2017,

[4] Poushter, Jacob.  How People Around The World See The U.S. And Donald Trump In 10 Charts, Pew Research Center, https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/01/08/how-people-around-the-world-see-the-u-s-and-donald-trump-in-10-charts/, 5 January 2020.

[5] Wike, Richard, Jacob Poushter and Hani Zainulbhai.  As Obama Years Draw to Close, President and U.S. Seen Favorably in Europe and Asia, Pew Research Center, http://www.pewglobal.org/2016/06/29/as-obama-years-draw-to-close-president-and-u-s-seen-favorably-in-europe-and-asia/?utm_source=Pew+Research+Center&utm_campaign=fe81087fff-Weekly_June_30_20166_30_2016&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_3e953b9b70-fe81087fff-400092341, 29 June 2016.

[6] Wilke, Richard, et al.  U.S. Image Plummets Internationally As Most Say Country Has Handled Coronavirus Badly, Pew Research Center, https://www.bing.com/search?q=Pew%20Research%20Center%2C%20U.S.%20considered%20unreliable%20by%20allies&qs=n&form=QBRE&sp=-1&ghc=1&pq=pew%20research%20center%2C%20u.s.%20considered%20unreliable%20by%20allies&sc=0-57&sk=&cvid=19D894C04E6B46D483936CEDDB148529, 17 May 2018, 17 May 2018., 18 September 2020.

[7] Wike, Richard, et al.  America’s Image Abroad Rebounds With Transition From Trump To Biden, Pew Research Center, https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2021/06/10/americas-image-abroad-rebounds-with-transition-from-trump-to-biden/, 10 June 2021.

Altruism

It seems to me….

“We, all of us, could do a much better job of evoking what someone has called the universal principle of human altruism: the urge in us all to help others who are in danger.”  ~ Bart Starr[1].

There are many rightful causes and I admit to having participated in a number of social protests when younger.  It is not that I feel less strongly about various social issues now that I am older, they just are something I personally leave for those younger.  There have been a number of instances when I hear of some planned demonstration with which I strongly agree, plan to attend, but stay home and afterward feel slightly guilty for not having gone.  Perhaps I have gotten lazy along with age, which is entirely possible  – but I accept that whatever the reason, I am unlikely to change.

It also is obvious that social changes occur very slowly and those opposing change know they can outlast any demand for alteration of current practices.  In the late 1960s/early 1970s, I believed we were the generation that would change the world little appreciating just how resilient the foundational fabric of society actually is.  The basic message at the time was “Peace, Love, and Understanding”.  It is difficult to understand how anyone could find that objectionable.  Needless to say, many did.

Perhaps the current generation is just as passionate but the issues have definitely changed.  Unfortunately, we are sufficiently politically divided that there is little probability of any appreciable progress on the issues I feel to be most important – mainly social and economic equality along with a reduction in climate change.

What has happened to concern and compassion?  Life is not zero-sum; social and economic issues should never be “I win; You lose”.  There is too much egocentrism and the primary concern of many seems to have become “what’s in it for me?”.  Each of us should consider ourselves to be our brother’s keeper.

How far removed from something does someone need to be to not be culpable for aiding and abetting?  The farmer feeds.  The tailor sews.  There should be much more to life than just basic day-to-day survival. I believe each of us is morally obligated to take a stand against whatever they see as being detrimental to the greater good.  It is the responsibility – the obligation – of each of us to speak out in opposition to injustice or other actions we deem unacceptable.

Altruism is the unselfish concern for other people—doing things simply out of a desire to help, not out of a sense of obligation or out of duty, loyalty, or religious rationales.  It is the principle and moral practice of concern for the welfare and happiness of others, possibly even at a risk or cost to oneself, without anticipating anything in return.  Altruism is the opposite of selfishness and self-interest.  There are those who believe in something they consider so beneficial and worthwhile that they have to support it even though they realize it might personally be disadvantageous to them.

There definitely are personal benefits to being altruistic.  Studies have found that those who are altruistic are generally mentally, emotionally, socially, and physically healthy and that altruism can lead to more confidence, better social relations, increased communication skills, and overall better mental wellbeing.  Acts of altruism lead to better self-esteem and an overall increase in happiness as well as satisfaction.  The most important drawback of altruism is neglect of one’s own needs, goals, passions, and desires.

There are possible negative aspects to altruism as some who are very well meaning may attempt to do too much and experience personal financial or other difficulties as a result.  Volunteers can be exposed to stressful situations and attitudes resulting in them experiencing burnout which reduces their involvement and overall well-being.  There also is evidence that volunteering can become a moral obligation that prompts feelings of guilt when not performed.  As in everything in life, it is necessary to find a balance between pursuing one’s own interests and helping others.

Given the widespread desire to support meaningful causes, it is only natural that organizations exist to advise as to how best to contribute to worthwhile organizations.  Financial contributions are the commonly preferred alternative to assisting those causes for those able to afford it or prefer to not volunteer their personal time and energy.  While financial contributions are needed by all commendatory organizations, the volume of such requests for financial support now exceeds reasonable limits and threatens to turn off a significant number of potential contributors.

Most TV programs now seem to be sponsored in part by various causes: save the African children, save the animals, support hospitals, support veterans, support health research….  And the commercials are intended to make one feel guilty if one does not contribute.  All are admittedly worthwhile causes but there is a limit.  All of us have various constraints and given the volume of such requests, it is inexcusable to attempt to make people feel guilty if they choose not to help.

The effective altruism (EA)[2] movement aims to use evidence and reason to find the best ways of helping others, and to put those findings into practice.  EA holds that we should value all lives equally and act on that basis[3].  The emphasis on neglected causes has led many EA leaders to focus more on how to maximize the good not just for those alive today, but also for the many, many generations yet to come.

In addition to financial contributions, most philanthropic organizations need volunteers.  Regardless of in what someone is interested, there is a need for assistance.  Many organizations are dependent on volunteers so those of all ages and abilities are needed.

Many volunteers are specifically trained in the areas in which they work, such as medicine, education, or emergency rescue.  Others serve on an as-needed basis, such as in response to a natural disaster.  There is a place for anyone willing and able.  While there are many who would like to do more, having insufficient time is a basic fact of life.

Numerous organizations exist to assist potential volunteers in finding opportunities where they can help; such as for those in the U.S., VolunteerMatch[4] or AARP[5]; most people are aware of multiple possibilities from employment, family, or personal associations.  For those with children, schools or athletic activities always need assistance.  Boy Scouts/Girl Scouts or 4H associations are dependent upon volunteers.  For those who have reached retirement, such possibilities with the Red Cross[6] or Habitat for Humanity[7] are essentially unlimited.  For those interested in hiking or the outdoors, there are many groups such as the Pacific Crest Trail Association[8], the Appalachian Trail Association[9], and others essentially everywhere who undertake responsibility for trail maintenance.  If nothing else, everyone should consider being an organ donor.  While there is a general need for all organs, there currently is a research need for human brains[10].

Personally, I have attempted to practice what I preach, though never to the extent to which I would have preferred, and have volunteered with the Red Cross along with my wife, Barb, for the last twenty years since retiring from teaching but now am starting to reduce that involvement to work on other projects.

I have yet to experience either a tsunami or volcanic eruption (though currently live about halfway between Mt. Shasta and Mt. Lassen) but have been through multiple occurrences of every other type of event nature can throw at us: earthquakes, tornadoes, southeast Asian monsoons, hurricanes, blizzards and ice storms, flooding, and every possible type of fire event.

My first volunteer response was during flooding along the Rio Grande while in flight training in the Air Force.  I was assigned to help cleanup damage at a Catholic orphanage.  A couple hours after starting, the nuns noticed the children were gathering around me and told me it was rare for an adult male to be there so to drop the cleanup and just spend time with the kids.  Having been an only child and never having spent much time with young children – I fell in love with twenty to thirty of the most fantastic creatures I had ever encountered and continued to visit the orphanage on subsequent weekends whenever I could until reassigned to another base.  The nuns at the orphanage haven’t any idea how much I appreciated the opportunity to spend time with those wonderful kids and how painful it was to leave.

It always is rewarding to see the number of people willing to drop everything putting their own life on hold to help others in need of assistance.  After deploying to my first couple of disasters, it also was appreciated to have a reunion with those volunteers I had met on previous deployments.  They have to be some of the greatest people in the world.  I consider myself very fortunate to have been able to know some of them.

While there are basic similarities in what people need, every disaster is different.  I slept on the concrete floor of an agricultural research station and stayed at a four-star resort (okay – the four-star resort was without working utilities).  There were days when meals were at best described as meager and others with excellent meals provide by José Andrés’ World Central Kitchen or volunteers from the Southern Baptist Convention.

A typical workday is twelve hours though several stretched out to about 36.  I have supervised evacuation shelters that opened and closed within hours on the same day and provided technology support on a deployment lasting over six weeks.  On one deployment, bathing was at night from a hose behind a church meeting room where we had a staff shelter.  At one large shelter for over a thousand evacuees, we were advised to burn our shoes prior to returning home due to ground contamination.

There are people who question why we are willing to be woken in the middle of the night and then drive possibly a hundred miles at our own expense over back-country roads in inclement weather to spend several days helping people we do not know and will never see again.  If they do not understand, there is no way to explain it to them.

Disaster deployment was once described to me as the hardest job anyone could possibly love.  Disaster relief is obviously not for everyone, but it can be extremely rewarding.  There have been several occasions when have returned home exhausted after being out several weeks, only to then again redeployed after only a day or two to rest and repack.

While many volunteer simply out of a desire to help others, some do so out of a feeling of guilt that they have so much when others have comparatively little.  The reason does not matter, power lies in ordinary people doing ordinary things.  While one person might not be able to accomplish very much on their own, when their efforts are combined with that of others, considerable becomes possible.

Everyone must answer to their own conscience and not feel quilt or be subjected to criticism regarding their personal decisions regarding activism.  Disaster response, for example, is only one of many numerous possibilities and will admittedly not appeal to most people.  The variety of options are endless and there is something for anyone willing to lend a helping hand if they choose to do so.

Regardless, everyone should strive to determine truth, validate beliefs, and support the moral imperative.  Together, we can create a better world in which to live.

That’s what I think, what about you?

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[1] Bryan Bartlett Starr was a U.S. professional football quarterback and coach.  A graduate of the University of Alabama, he played for the Green Bay Packers until his retirement in 1971.  Starr is the only quarterback in NFL history to lead a team to three consecutive league championships (1965–1967).  He also led his team to victories in the first two Super Bowls: both I and II.

[2] Effective Altruism Is About Doing Good Better, Effective Altruism, https://www.effectivealtruism.org/, 2022.

[3] Bajekal, Naine.  How To Do The Most Good, Time, https://time.com/6204627/effective-altruism-longtermism-william-macaskill-interview/?xid=emailshare, 22-29 August 2022, pp 68-73.

[4] VolunteerMatch, https://www.volunteermatch.org/.

[5] AARP Volunteer, https://www.aarp.org/volunteer/?gclid=e02e521f187711bb5ba33115b72bc9c9&gclsrc=3p.ds&msclkid=e02e521f187711bb5ba33115b72bc9c9&utm_source=bing&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=CTG-NonBrand-AARPVolunteer-Volunteer-Exact&utm_term=volunteer&utm_content=Opportunities.

[6] American Red Cross, https://www.redcross.org/volunteer/become-a-volunteer.html.

[7] Habitat for Humanity, https://www.habitat.org/volunteer

[8] Pacific Crest Trail Association, https://www.pcta.org/.

[9] Appalachian Trail Conservancy, https://appalachiantrail.org/.

[10] Brain Donor Project, https://braindonorproject.org/#:~:text=Donating%20your%20brain%20could%20help%20unlock%20the%20mysteries,of%20human%20post-mortem%20brains%20donated%20for%20scientific%20research..